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AUB
Auburn
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference5-7#59 (+1.83)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
38· DRating
34· DPer play
49· CConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
48· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.000
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.019
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.018
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#36
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 43 spots higher
39 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense46th
Opp-adjusted defense55th
Offensive EPA/play34th
Defensive EPA/play49th
Offensive success rate60th
Explosiveness47th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive34th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3562USC2018OA -0.060 / +0.011similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3553Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3514Purdue2023OA -0.050 / +0.010similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3495Wake Forest2023OA -0.025 / +0.010similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate349
2024 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Alabama A&M | 73-3 | W | -46.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 2 | vs California | 14-21 | L | -12.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs New Mexico | 45-19 | W | -28.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Arkansas | 14-24 | L | -2.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 5 | vs Oklahoma | 21-27 | L | +2.0 | L | 45 | O |
| 6 | @ Georgia | 13-31 | L | +23.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 8 | @ Missouri | 17-21 | L | +4.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 9 | @ Kentucky | 24-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Vanderbilt | 7-17 | L | -6.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 12 | vs UL Monroe | 48-14 | W | -24.0 | W | 46 | O |
| 13 | vs Texas A&M | 43-41 | W | +2.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Alabama | 14-28 | L | +11.5 | L | 52 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.005 | 41th | -0.002 | 49th |
| Red Zone | -0.162 | 19th | +0.059 | 37th |
| Third Down | +0.094 | 46th | +0.129 | 40th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.009 | 42th | -0.005 | 51th |
| First Half | -0.017 | 40th | -0.064 | 67th |
| Second Half | +0.007 | 44th | +0.062 | 25th |
| Early Downs | -0.054 | 28th | -0.066 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | +0.045 | 54th | +0.041 | 37th |
| Standard Downs | -0.029 | 38th | -0.028 | 56th |
| Goal to Go | -0.324 | 10th | -0.101 | 69th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
429.4
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
41.8%
3&Out%
21.2%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 12 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 333 | 256 |
| Points / Game | 27.8 | 21.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 252 | 213 |
| Rushing | 108 | 90 |
| Passing | 127 | 101 |
| Penalty | 17 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 404 | 459 |
| Yards | 1,986 | 1,413 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Yards / Game | 165.5 | 117.8 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 369 | 354 |
| Completions | 230 | 199 |
| Completion % | 62.3% | 56.2% |
| Yards | 3,167 | 2,556 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 151.53 | 123.53 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 773 | 813 |
| Yards | 5,153 | 3,969 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 429.4 | 330.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 8 |
| Yards | 130 | 30 |
| Average | 6.8 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 16 |
| Yards | 509 | 328 |
| Average | 22.1 | 20.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 41 | 61 |
| Yards | 1,741 | 2,645 |
| Average | 42.5 | 43.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 13 |
| Yards | 58 | 114 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 14 |
| Lost | 9 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 78 |
| Yards | 592 | 642 |
| Yards / Game | 49.3 | 53.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:14 | 31:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 146 | 184 |
| Conversions | 61 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 41.8% | 39.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 19 |
| Conversions | 9 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 29 |
| Score % | 78.0% | 78.4% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 24 |
| TD % | 48.8% | 64.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 22 |
| Made | 12 | 13 |
| Pct | 54.5% | 59.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 27 |
| Made | 41 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 6 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.