Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniBalanced
Big Ten Conference5-7#93 (-3.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
40· CRating
40· CPer play
67· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
32· DPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.017
Defensive EPA/play
+0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.142
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
market 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 29 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
65th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: run defense, passing offense, takeaway rate3452Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3433Pittsburgh2017OA +0.004 / -0.016similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3434Purdue2020OA +0.014 / -0.015similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3335Colorado State2023OA -0.066 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate332

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Toledo30-28W+3.5L56.5O
2@ Kansas23-34L----
3vs Penn State13-30L+14.5L48.5U
4vs Florida Atlantic23-17W-15.5L45.5U
5@ Purdue19-44L-3.0L43U
6vs Nebraska7-20L----
7@ Maryland27-24W+14.0W51P
8vs Wisconsin21-25L+2.5L42.5O
10@ Minnesota27-26W+2.0W43O
11vs Indiana48-45W-6.5L43.5O
12@ Iowa13-15L+3.5W30.5U
13vs Northwestern43-45L-5.8L47O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS0-7
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off56thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off15thPass Def48thRush Def33thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00347th+0.03736th
Red Zone+0.21188th+0.04832th
Third Down-0.01515th+0.18445th
No Garbage Time-0.00644th+0.04732th
First Half+0.03456th+0.11216th
Second Half-0.02739th-0.04166th
Early Downs+0.01672th+0.01332th
Passing Downs+0.01437th+0.03548th
Standard Downs-0.00256th+0.03833th
Goal to Go-0.02940th+0.3819th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
391.0
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
36.0%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points294353
Points / Game24.529.4
First Downs
Total245268
Rushing77104
Passing148131
Penalty2033
Rushing
Attempts396459
Yards1,5171,790
Yards / Carry3.83.9
Yards / Game126.4149.2
Touchdowns1219
Passing
Attempts415399
Completions261241
Completion %62.9%60.4%
Yards3,1752,737
Yards / Attempt7.76.9
Touchdowns2322
Interceptions137
Passer Rating139.18132.71
Total Offense
Plays811858
Yards4,6924,527
Yards / Play5.85.3
Yards / Game391.0377.3
Punt Returns
Returns1214
Yards133101
Average11.17.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2528
Yards454536
Average18.219.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5255
Yards2,1832,331
Average42.042.4
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards103106
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1719
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties7968
Yards749573
Yards / Game62.447.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2531:35
Third Downs
Attempts161175
Conversions5877
Conversion %36.0%44.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2515
Conversions148
Conversion %56.0%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips3653
Scores (TD + FG)3345
Score %91.7%84.9%
Touchdowns2534
TD %69.4%64.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1924
Made1418
Pct73.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2638
Made2435
Pct92.3%92.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts105
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →