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CSU
Colorado State
RamsPass-HeavyPac-12 Conference5-7#106 (-4.56)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
31· DPer play
70· BConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
38· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.066
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.038
Defensive EPA/play
+0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.074
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#79
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense23th
Opp-adjusted defense22th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play39th
Offensive success rate68th
Explosiveness8th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive31th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3812Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3723Arkansas State2025OA -0.117 / -0.043similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3654Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3585Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate351
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Washington State | 24-50 | L | +11.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Colorado | 35-43 | L | +23.3 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Middle Tennessee | 31-23 | W | +3.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Utah Tech | 41-20 | W | -32.0 | L | 67.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Utah State | 24-44 | L | -2.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 7 | vs Boise State | 31-30 | W | +7.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 8 | @ UNLV | 23-25 | L | +7.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 9 | vs Air Force | 13-30 | L | +7.0 | L | 42 | U |
| 10 | @ Wyoming | 15-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs San Diego State | 22-19 | W | -4.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Nevada | 30-20 | W | -11.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Hawai'i | 24-27 | L | -5.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.032 | 35th | +0.037 | 37th |
| Red Zone | -0.096 | 26th | +0.016 | 45th |
| Third Down | +0.188 | 47th | +0.355 | 17th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.046 | 31th | +0.034 | 39th |
| First Half | -0.067 | 24th | -0.024 | 64th |
| Second Half | +0.006 | 50th | +0.094 | 20th |
| Early Downs | -0.068 | 33th | +0.031 | 22th |
| Passing Downs | +0.052 | 50th | +0.033 | 50th |
| Standard Downs | -0.079 | 21th | +0.039 | 33th |
| Goal to Go | +0.595 | 99th | -0.061 | 61th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 60.1%Rush 39.9%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
398.7
Pts/Drive
1.88
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
22.4%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 313 | 355 |
| Points / Game | 26.1 | 29.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 248 | 277 |
| Rushing | 63 | 115 |
| Passing | 165 | 136 |
| Penalty | 20 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 332 | 485 |
| Yards | 1,106 | 1,995 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 92.2 | 166.3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 389 |
| Completions | 311 | 278 |
| Completion % | 62.1% | 71.5% |
| Yards | 3,678 | 2,996 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 132.37 | 148.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 833 | 874 |
| Yards | 4,784 | 4,991 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 398.7 | 415.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 13 |
| Yards | 150 | 93 |
| Average | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 15 |
| Yards | 580 | 320 |
| Average | 22.3 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 47 |
| Yards | 2,250 | 2,127 |
| Average | 43.3 | 45.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 18 |
| Yards | 74 | 229 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 18 |
| Lost | 7 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 77 |
| Yards | 838 | 744 |
| Yards / Game | 69.8 | 62.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:36 | 33:17 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 179 |
| Conversions | 72 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 41.1% | 44.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 16 |
| Conversions | 8 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 42.1% | 56.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 43 |
| Score % | 79.5% | 89.6% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 28 |
| TD % | 53.8% | 58.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 31 |
| Made | 15 | 24 |
| Pct | 78.9% | 77.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 36 |
| Made | 34 | 33 |
| Pct | 97.1% | 91.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.