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USU
Utah State
AggiesBalancedPac-12 Conference7-6#64 (+0.61)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
52· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
27· DPer play
50· CConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
56· CPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.018
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.129
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.96
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense46th
Opp-adjusted defense71th
Offensive EPA/play28th
Defensive EPA/play57th
Offensive success rate50th
Explosiveness25th
Defensive havoc28th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense4062East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3773Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate3644New Mexico State2025OA -0.085 / -0.004similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3605Colorado State2023OA -0.066 / -0.063similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate357
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Wake Forest | 35-38 | L | -7.0 | L | 71 | O |
| 2 | vs Stony Brook | 62-7 | W | -31.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 4 | @ San Diego State | 23-17 | W | -4.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 5 | vs Colorado State | 34-24 | W | -24.0 | L | 69 | U |
| 6 | @ LSU | 6-42 | L | +27.0 | L | 72.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Nevada | 36-10 | W | -21.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 9 | @ Air Force | 7-31 | L | +4.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 10 | vs BYU | 14-42 | L | -3.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Fresno State | 37-35 | W | +5.0 | W | 59 | O |
| 12 | vs Wyoming | 26-21 | W | -4.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Boise State | 21-56 | L | +4.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 14 | @ New Mexico | 38-25 | W | -12.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 17 | @ Kent State | 41-51 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.045 | 29th | -0.011 | 56th |
| Red Zone | -0.237 | 13th | +0.107 | 20th |
| Third Down | +0.001 | 43th | +0.047 | 45th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.056 | 27th | -0.021 | 61th |
| First Half | -0.027 | 37th | -0.073 | 70th |
| Second Half | -0.063 | 26th | +0.060 | 24th |
| Early Downs | -0.018 | 38th | +0.020 | 43th |
| Passing Downs | -0.072 | 30th | -0.086 | 77th |
| Standard Downs | -0.030 | 34th | +0.025 | 37th |
| Goal to Go | -0.282 | 19th | +0.067 | 31th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
431.3
Pts/Drive
1.96
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
22.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Utah State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 380 | 399 |
| Points / Game | 29.2 | 30.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 289 | 304 |
| Rushing | 114 | 148 |
| Passing | 156 | 138 |
| Penalty | 19 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 461 | 611 |
| Yards | 1,979 | 2,625 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 152.2 | 201.9 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 29 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 504 | 405 |
| Completions | 315 | 241 |
| Completion % | 62.5% | 59.5% |
| Yards | 3,628 | 3,102 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 130.23 | 134.71 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 965 | 1,016 |
| Yards | 5,607 | 5,727 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 431.3 | 440.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 19 |
| Yards | 138 | 207 |
| Average | 11.5 | 10.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 30 |
| Yards | 745 | 679 |
| Average | 21.9 | 22.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 70 | 68 |
| Yards | 2,760 | 2,854 |
| Average | 39.4 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 18 |
| Yards | 161 | 191 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 24 |
| Lost | 8 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 86 |
| Yards | 615 | 758 |
| Yards / Game | 47.3 | 58.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 24:53 | 35:01 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 197 | 203 |
| Conversions | 84 | 94 |
| Conversion % | 42.6% | 46.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 18 |
| Conversions | 3 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 58 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 50 |
| Score % | 73.5% | 86.2% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 43 |
| TD % | 46.9% | 74.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 13 |
| Made | 21 | 10 |
| Pct | 87.5% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 52 |
| Made | 45 | 49 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.