Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesBalanced
Conference USA4-8#114 (-11.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
25· DPer play
18· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
69· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.074
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.001
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#122
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 35 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
12th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3652Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3623Akron2025OA -0.107 / -0.010similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3514Akron2018OA -0.161 / +0.022similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3435Utah State2017OA -0.063 / +0.074similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA341

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bryant19-3W-19.5L53.5U
2vs Tulsa21-14W+3.5W52.5U
3@ Louisiana Tech14-49L+10.0L42.5O
5@ New Mexico20-38L+1.5W53U
6vs Sam Houston37-10W----
8@ Liberty27-30L+2.5L51.5U
9vs Missouri State17-24L----
10@ Western Kentucky16-35L+13.0L49O
11vs Kennesaw State21-24L+21.5W54.5U
12@ Tennessee9-42L+46.5W64U
13@ UTEP34-31W+3.5W63.5O
14vs Middle Tennessee24-31L+4.5L44.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off31thRush Off13thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off81thPass Def58thRush Def83thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def62th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08921th-0.08379th
Red Zone-0.03943th-0.21788th
Third Down+0.27181th+0.00962th
No Garbage Time-0.07725th-0.06869th
First Half-0.09919th-0.05768th
Second Half-0.07924th-0.11186th
Early Downs-0.1702th-0.07976th
Passing Downs-0.08831th-0.05258th
Standard Downs-0.08913th-0.09983th
Goal to Go-0.20917th-0.33383th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.9%Rush 43.1%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
327.9
Pts/Drive
1.60
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points259331
Points / Game21.627.6
First Downs
Total245258
Rushing6699
Passing141138
Penalty3821
Rushing
Attempts357451
Yards9271,980
Yards / Carry2.64.4
Yards / Game77.3165.0
Touchdowns914
Passing
Attempts472408
Completions276260
Completion %58.5%63.7%
Yards3,0082,842
Yards / Attempt6.47.0
Touchdowns1725
Interceptions1615
Passer Rating117.11135.10
Total Offense
Plays829859
Yards3,9354,822
Yards / Play4.75.6
Yards / Game327.9401.8
Punt Returns
Returns1720
Yards9295
Average5.44.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1520
Yards305375
Average20.318.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6157
Yards2,5922,456
Average42.543.1
Interception Returns
Returns1516
Yards164218
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1617
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties7499
Yards654924
Yards / Game54.577.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0629:53
Third Downs
Attempts186179
Conversions7874
Conversion %41.9%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1717
Conversions78
Conversion %41.2%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips3636
Scores (TD + FG)3229
Score %88.9%80.6%
Touchdowns1921
TD %52.8%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2518
Made1912
Pct76.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2841
Made2641
Pct92.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →