Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference6-7#74 (-1.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
36· DRating
18· DPer play
25· DConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
80· BPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.113
Defensive EPA/play
-0.133
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
81th
Offensive success rate
21th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3782Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3753Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3634Central Michigan2017OA -0.059 / +0.044similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3625Nevada2019OA -0.084 / -0.008similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive success rate352

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wisconsin10-59L-5.5L63.5U
2vs Idaho State51-13W-35.0W--
3@ Wake Forest10-46L+15.5L51O
4@ San José State61-10W-2.0W55O
5vs BYU40-24W+1.0W49.5O
6vs Colorado State14-27L+9.5L66U
7vs Wyoming23-28L+1.0L50O
8@ UNLV52-28W+3.5W59O
9vs Boise State14-41L+13.0L52O
10@ New Mexico24-10W+3.0W51.5U
12vs Hawai'i38-0W-10.5W56U
13@ Air Force35-38L+2.5L57O
18vs New Mexico State20-26L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off11thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off8thPass Def65thRush Def89thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12314th-0.13581th
Red Zone-0.08129th-0.37895th
Third Down-0.3858th-0.15771th
No Garbage Time-0.11518th-0.13782th
First Half-0.10320th-0.13176th
Second Half-0.14316th-0.13980th
Early Downs-0.12214th-0.14989th
Passing Downs-0.08729th-0.08765th
Standard Downs-0.14511th-0.16189th
Goal to Go-0.4255th-0.26583th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.3%Rush 52.7%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
10.6
Yards/Game
397.4
Pts/Drive
1.83
3rd Down%
34.3%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points392350
Points / Game30.226.9
First Downs
Total248276
Rushing101147
Passing132108
Penalty1521
Rushing
Attempts485626
Yards2,2282,813
Yards / Carry4.64.5
Yards / Game171.4216.4
Touchdowns2420
Passing
Attempts435376
Completions254209
Completion %58.4%55.6%
Yards2,9382,372
Yards / Attempt6.86.3
Touchdowns1717
Interceptions1313
Passer Rating122.04116.58
Total Offense
Plays9201,002
Yards5,1665,185
Yards / Play5.65.2
Yards / Game397.4398.8
Punt Returns
Returns3016
Yards287128
Average9.68.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3636
Yards786653
Average21.818.1
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts7981
Yards3,2943,254
Average41.740.2
Interception Returns
Returns1313
Yards234311
Touchdowns34
Fumbles
Fumbles1822
Lost1116
Penalties
Penalties8092
Yards729730
Yards / Game56.156.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:3933:21
Third Downs
Attempts201211
Conversions6975
Conversion %34.3%35.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1926
Conversions1012
Conversion %52.6%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips4043
Scores (TD + FG)3535
Score %87.5%81.4%
Touchdowns2021
TD %50.0%48.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2519
Made1916
Pct76.0%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4741
Made4740
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →