Fourth Down Data
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NEV

Nevada

Wolf PackBalanced
Mountain West Conference7-6#116 (-12.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
21· DRating
22· DPer play
16· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
63· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.084
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.084
Defensive EPA/play
-0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.4%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.174
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
49th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3902Bowling Green2021OA -0.136 / +0.005similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense3643Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3594Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3535Utah State2017OA -0.063 / +0.074similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive success rate352

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Purdue34-31W+10.5W62.5U
2@ Oregon6-77L+24.0L61.5O
3vs Weber State19-13W-7.5L51.5U
4@ UTEP37-21W-14.0W51.5O
5vs Hawai'i3-54L-2.0L64U
7vs San José State41-38W-3.0P60.5O
8@ Utah State10-36L+21.0L59U
9@ Wyoming3-31L+12.0L44.5U
10vs New Mexico21-10W-4.0W58U
11@ San Diego State17-13W+17.0W40U
13@ Fresno State35-28W+13.0W52O
14vs UNLV30-33L-7.0L51.5O
19vs Ohio21-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off22thRed Zone Off10th3rd Down Off29thPass Def74thRush Def33thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08919th-0.00854th
Red Zone-0.26410th+0.00148th
Third Down-0.05829th-0.17389th
No Garbage Time-0.09419th-0.02160th
First Half-0.1639th+0.04632th
Second Half-0.01441th-0.06174th
Early Downs-0.11511th+0.05025th
Passing Downs-0.11920th-0.07674th
Standard Downs-0.07022th+0.03033th
Goal to Go-0.23524th+0.26513th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
365.3
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
30.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNevadaOpponents
Scoring
Points277415
Points / Game21.331.9
First Downs
Total251258
Rushing90110
Passing144136
Penalty1712
Rushing
Attempts446450
Yards1,5031,940
Yards / Carry3.44.3
Yards / Game115.6149.2
Touchdowns1618
Passing
Attempts500407
Completions310246
Completion %62.0%60.4%
Yards3,2463,261
Yards / Attempt6.58.0
Touchdowns1431
Interceptions1311
Passer Rating120.57147.48
Total Offense
Plays946857
Yards4,7495,201
Yards / Play5.06.1
Yards / Game365.3400.1
Punt Returns
Returns1931
Yards184222
Average9.77.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3322
Yards645459
Average19.520.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7362
Yards2,9902,657
Average41.042.9
Interception Returns
Returns1113
Yards8589
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2218
Lost118
Penalties
Penalties9677
Yards772678
Yards / Game59.452.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4728:13
Third Downs
Attempts205171
Conversions7660
Conversion %37.1%35.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2425
Conversions1415
Conversion %58.3%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4746
Scores (TD + FG)3739
Score %78.7%84.8%
Touchdowns2130
TD %44.7%65.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2518
Made2116
Pct84.0%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3051
Made2851
Pct93.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →