Fourth Down Data
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CSU

Colorado State

RamsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference8-5#92 (-2.97)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
18· DRating
21· DPer play
18· DConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
55· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.071
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#75
market 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense4062Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4053Nevada2019OA -0.084 / -0.008similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3904East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3845Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate383

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas0-52L+32.0L60U
2vs Northern Colorado38-17W-30.3L52.25O
3vs Colorado9-28L+7.0L58.5U
4vs UTEP27-17W-9.0W49.5U
6@ Oregon State31-39L+11.5W47.5O
7vs San José State31-24W+1.5W56U
8@ Air Force21-13W-7.0W46U
9vs New Mexico17-6W-6.5W65.5U
10@ Nevada38-21W-1.5W45.5O
12vs Wyoming24-10W----
13@ Fresno State22-28L+3.0L46O
14vs Utah State42-37W----
18vs Miami (OH)17-43L+2.8L40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off12thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off32thPass Def72thRush Def34thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05025th-0.00350th
Red Zone-0.2427th+0.07136th
Third Down+0.01332th+0.02066th
No Garbage Time-0.05525th-0.04364th
First Half-0.07527th-0.04560th
Second Half-0.02632th+0.03237th
Early Downs-0.09813th+0.03724th
Passing Downs+0.02750th-0.08572th
Standard Downs-0.09112th+0.03634th
Goal to Go-0.24616th+0.07837th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.7%Rush 54.3%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
387.6
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
36.3%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColorado StateOpponents
Scoring
Points317335
Points / Game24.425.8
First Downs
Total233260
Rushing103101
Passing113135
Penalty1724
Rushing
Attempts463457
Yards2,1862,077
Yards / Carry4.74.5
Yards / Game168.2159.8
Touchdowns2021
Passing
Attempts390428
Completions236262
Completion %60.5%61.2%
Yards2,8533,051
Yards / Attempt7.37.1
Touchdowns1620
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating130.37131.84
Total Offense
Plays853885
Yards5,0395,128
Yards / Play5.95.8
Yards / Game387.6394.5
Punt Returns
Returns1818
Yards24844
Average13.82.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1922
Yards345456
Average18.220.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6159
Yards2,4302,407
Average39.840.8
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards18175
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1826
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties8487
Yards669730
Yards / Game51.556.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1628:34
Third Downs
Attempts179183
Conversions6572
Conversion %36.3%39.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2930
Conversions1818
Conversion %62.1%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4441
Scores (TD + FG)3435
Score %77.3%85.4%
Touchdowns2429
TD %54.5%70.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2017
Made1412
Pct70.0%70.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3339
Made3339
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts64
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →