Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference3-6#84 (-2.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
29· DRating
15· DPer play
18· DConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
57· CPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.104
Defensive EPA/play
+0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.105
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.89

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
58th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2021OA -0.081 / -0.044similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4052Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3843Tulsa2018OA -0.122 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, passing offense3804Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3775Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA377

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs UCF28-51L+27.5W77O
5@ Georgia State29-49L+2.5L69.5O
6@ South Florida44-24W+4.5W55O
7vs Navy23-27L-1.0L58U
9@ Tulsa30-34L----
10vs Tulane21-38L+27.5L55.5O
11@ Cincinnati17-55L----
12@ Temple28-3W-3.5W57.5U
13vs SMU52-38W+12.5W67.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-4
55.6%
O/U Record
6-3
66.7%
Straight Up
3-6
33.3%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off24thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off15thPass Def66thRush Def25thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04230th+0.03647th
Red Zone-0.10126th+0.06134th
Third Down-0.16815th-0.00167th
No Garbage Time-0.13213th-0.01461th
First Half-0.00148th-0.02866th
Second Half-0.08319th+0.10722th
Early Downs+0.00151th+0.09013th
Passing Downs+0.00544th-0.03266th
Standard Downs-0.06524th+0.06925th
Goal to Go+0.36886th+0.22022th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
402.7
Pts/Drive
1.89
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
18.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points272319
Points / Game30.235.4
First Downs
Total198203
Rushing8086
Passing91104
Penalty2713
Rushing
Attempts362351
Yards1,5641,812
Yards / Carry4.35.2
Yards / Game173.8201.3
Touchdowns1123
Passing
Attempts293297
Completions176194
Completion %60.1%65.3%
Yards2,0602,214
Yards / Attempt7.07.5
Touchdowns1917
Interceptions910
Passer Rating134.38140.09
Total Offense
Plays655648
Yards3,6244,026
Yards / Play5.56.2
Yards / Game402.7447.3
Punt Returns
Returns1310
Yards19070
Average14.67.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3114
Yards591284
Average19.120.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4242
Yards1,7391,674
Average41.439.9
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards80131
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1713
Lost128
Penalties
Penalties5785
Yards524774
Yards / Game58.286.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0528:55
Third Downs
Attempts129121
Conversions4345
Conversion %33.3%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1817
Conversions108
Conversion %55.6%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips3540
Scores (TD + FG)2935
Score %82.9%87.5%
Touchdowns1926
TD %54.3%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2111
Made149
Pct66.7%81.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3140
Made3038
Pct96.8%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →