Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneRun-Heavy
American Conference3-9#98 (-4.30)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
22· DPer play
36· DConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
48· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.122
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.092
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
recruiting 32 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
48th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
58th
Defensive havoc
11th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2021OA -0.024 / +0.004similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3892East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, passing offense3803Georgia Tech2020OA -0.026 / -0.011similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3664Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3655UConn2022OA -0.103 / -0.053similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate354

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas38-27W-11.5L62O
2@ Texas21-28L+22.5W60.5U
3vs Arkansas State20-29L-2.0L71U
4@ Temple17-31L+6.5L54U
6@ Houston26-41L+17.5W71.5U
7vs South Florida24-25L+10.0W60.5U
8@ Arkansas0-23L+7.5L52U
9vs Tulane17-24L+1.0L49U
10vs UConn49-19W-18.5W60O
11@ Memphis21-47L+16.5L66O
12@ Navy29-37L+5.0L50.5O
13vs SMU27-24W+2.5W52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off19thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off54thPass Def59thRush Def41thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06423th-0.00350th
Red Zone-0.04135th-0.23590th
Third Down+0.06754th+0.08236th
No Garbage Time-0.06425th+0.00149th
First Half-0.08722th-0.02152th
Second Half-0.04132th+0.01844th
Early Downs-0.1567th-0.02955th
Passing Downs-0.00547th-0.03159th
Standard Downs-0.09519th+0.01141th
Goal to Go-0.02234th-0.24086th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.3%Rush 64.7%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
377.6
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
43.0%
3&Out%
23.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points289355
Points / Game24.129.6
First Downs
Total242258
Rushing133135
Passing9795
Penalty1228
Rushing
Attempts582559
Yards2,4062,797
Yards / Carry4.15.0
Yards / Game200.5233.1
Touchdowns2326
Passing
Attempts317310
Completions171180
Completion %53.9%58.1%
Yards2,1252,095
Yards / Attempt6.76.8
Touchdowns1311
Interceptions109
Passer Rating117.48120.74
Total Offense
Plays899869
Yards4,5314,892
Yards / Play5.05.6
Yards / Game377.6407.7
Punt Returns
Returns1226
Yards149277
Average12.410.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3125
Yards561487
Average18.119.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5355
Yards2,4692,111
Average46.638.4
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards73150
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2217
Lost1411
Penalties
Penalties8581
Yards746697
Yards / Game62.258.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1230:48
Third Downs
Attempts200177
Conversions8681
Conversion %43.0%45.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3111
Conversions184
Conversion %58.1%36.4%
Red Zone
Trips5253
Scores (TD + FG)4143
Score %78.8%81.1%
Touchdowns3027
TD %57.7%50.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2121
Made1219
Pct57.1%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3641
Made3538
Pct97.2%92.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →