← All Teams
BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsBalancedMid-American Conference6-7#107 (-4.96)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
21· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
15· DPer play
15· DConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
40· CPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.100
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.143
Defensive EPA/play
+0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.8%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.96
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.29
own return game
Return Defense
+0.69
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#110
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 32 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense21th
Opp-adjusted defense22th
Offensive EPA/play15th
Defensive EPA/play40th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness26th
Defensive havoc64th
Points per drive24th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate4292Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, run defense, pass defense4273Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4054Duke2020OA -0.072 / -0.025similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3795Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate374
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UCLA | 17-45 | L | +23.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 2 | vs Eastern Kentucky | 57-59 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Marshall | 34-31 | W | +16.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Mississippi State | 14-45 | L | +30.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 5 | @ Akron | 31-28 | W | -9.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Buffalo | 7-38 | L | +2.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Miami (OH) | 17-13 | W | +7.0 | W | 46 | U |
| 8 | @ Central Michigan | 34-18 | W | +6.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Western Michigan | 13-9 | W | +2.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 6-40 | L | +17.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Toledo | 42-35 | W | +7.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 13 | @ Ohio | 14-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | vs New Mexico State | 19-24 | L | -3.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.144 | 13th | -0.002 | 43th |
| Red Zone | -0.253 | 11th | +0.024 | 41th |
| Third Down | -0.261 | 7th | +0.319 | 11th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.138 | 16th | +0.004 | 40th |
| First Half | -0.182 | 9th | +0.020 | 36th |
| Second Half | -0.102 | 23th | -0.024 | 50th |
| Early Downs | -0.052 | 36th | -0.057 | 66th |
| Passing Downs | -0.261 | 4th | +0.017 | 41th |
| Standard Downs | -0.073 | 26th | -0.013 | 46th |
| Goal to Go | -0.590 | 3th | +0.089 | 28th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.4%Rush 48.6%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
333.5
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
34.0%
3&Out%
24.8%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 305 | 423 |
| Points / Game | 23.5 | 32.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 226 | 281 |
| Rushing | 81 | 115 |
| Passing | 125 | 146 |
| Penalty | 20 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 415 | 504 |
| Yards | 1,304 | 2,196 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 100.3 | 168.9 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 439 | 434 |
| Completions | 267 | 281 |
| Completion % | 60.8% | 64.7% |
| Yards | 3,032 | 3,259 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 29 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 132.62 | 145.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 854 | 938 |
| Yards | 4,336 | 5,455 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 333.5 | 419.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 15 |
| Yards | 213 | 57 |
| Average | 14.2 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 34 |
| Yards | 863 | 734 |
| Average | 22.7 | 21.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 70 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,693 | 1,995 |
| Average | 38.5 | 36.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 142 | 114 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 20 |
| Lost | 12 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 101 | 77 |
| Yards | 901 | 664 |
| Yards / Game | 69.3 | 51.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:01 | 30:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 188 | 200 |
| Conversions | 64 | 94 |
| Conversion % | 34.0% | 47.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 27 |
| Conversions | 11 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 44 |
| Score % | 76.9% | 83.0% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 36 |
| TD % | 51.3% | 67.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 17 |
| Made | 11 | 13 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 50 |
| Made | 34 | 50 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 9 |
| Made | 4 | 5 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.