Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#97 (-3.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
24· DRating
18· DPer play
15· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
39· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
16· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.009
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.6%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.50
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#106
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 22 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
40th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA4332Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate4293Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense3944Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: run defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3805North Carolina2025OA -0.056 / -0.062similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate372

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Virginia Tech20-17W----
2@ East Carolina21-39L+13.0L50.5O
3@ Virginia14-16L+8.5W53U
4vs Arkansas State29-26W-5.5L56.5U
5vs Liberty24-38L+3.5L42.5O
7@ Coastal Carolina49-21W+12.0W56O
8vs Georgia Southern23-28L-2.5L65.5U
9@ Georgia State17-31L+3.5L56U
10vs Marshall0-12L+3.0L46.5U
11vs James Madison3-37L+7.5L46.5U
12@ App State14-27L+16.0W50.5U
13@ South Alabama20-27L+15.5W48U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off18thRed Zone Off17th3rd Down Off16thPass Def64thRush Def24thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11818th+0.00839th
Red Zone-0.19717th-0.32393th
Third Down-0.13416th+0.26818th
No Garbage Time-0.14314th+0.00341th
First Half-0.13219th+0.00342th
Second Half-0.10322th+0.01434th
Early Downs-0.06528th+0.02626th
Passing Downs-0.10925th-0.04464th
Standard Downs-0.12318th+0.03424th
Goal to Go-0.23420th-0.33385th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.4%Rush 42.6%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
339.7
Pts/Drive
1.50
3rd Down%
29.4%
3&Out%
26.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points234319
Points / Game19.526.6
First Downs
Total192282
Rushing55130
Passing120125
Penalty1727
Rushing
Attempts312570
Yards1,1102,380
Yards / Carry3.64.2
Yards / Game92.5198.3
Touchdowns819
Passing
Attempts421358
Completions237232
Completion %56.3%64.8%
Yards2,9662,931
Yards / Attempt7.08.2
Touchdowns1917
Interceptions712
Passer Rating127.04142.54
Total Offense
Plays733928
Yards4,0765,311
Yards / Play5.65.7
Yards / Game339.7442.6
Punt Returns
Returns1518
Yards12055
Average8.03.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2526
Yards494525
Average19.820.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6847
Yards2,9301,875
Average43.139.9
Interception Returns
Returns127
Yards10188
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1719
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties8274
Yards745643
Yards / Game62.153.6
Time of Possession
Per Game24:2035:40
Third Downs
Attempts160187
Conversions4777
Conversion %29.4%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2225
Conversions816
Conversion %36.4%64.0%
Red Zone
Trips2747
Scores (TD + FG)2235
Score %81.5%74.5%
Touchdowns1421
TD %51.9%44.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1326
Made1020
Pct76.9%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2837
Made2835
Pct100.0%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →