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UConn
HuskiesBalancedFBS Independents3-9#122 (-7.07)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
20· DPer play
15· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
29· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.119
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.078
Defensive EPA/play
+0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.133
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.58
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#113
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 46 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UConn ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense7th
Opp-adjusted defense30th
Offensive EPA/play20th
Defensive EPA/play30th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc29th
Points per drive13th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Sam Houston2025OA -0.185 / -0.124similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4592Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive success rate4533Temple2021OA -0.129 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate4504Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: run defense, havoc rate, turnover rate4485Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA436
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs NC State | 14-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Georgia State | 14-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Florida International | 17-24 | L | -7.0 | L | 40 | O |
| 4 | vs Duke | 7-41 | L | +21.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 5 | vs Utah State | 33-34 | L | +5.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 6 | @ Rice | 38-31 | W | +9.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 8 | vs South Florida | 21-24 | L | +2.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Boston College | 14-21 | L | +14.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Tennessee | 3-59 | L | +35.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 11 | @ James Madison | 6-44 | L | +24.8 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Sacred Heart | 31-3 | W | -32.5 | L | 46.25 | U |
| 13 | @ Massachusetts | 31-18 | W | -2.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.090 | 14th | +0.047 | 33th |
| Red Zone | -0.209 | 10th | -0.004 | 50th |
| Third Down | +0.075 | 24th | +0.396 | 13th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.080 | 17th | +0.049 | 31th |
| First Half | -0.127 | 11th | -0.027 | 66th |
| Second Half | -0.052 | 32th | +0.125 | 9th |
| Early Downs | -0.112 | 16th | +0.044 | 19th |
| Passing Downs | -0.096 | 16th | +0.080 | 36th |
| Standard Downs | -0.086 | 19th | +0.031 | 34th |
| Goal to Go | +0.151 | 78th | +0.360 | 12th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
326.9
Pts/Drive
1.58
3rd Down%
35.5%
3&Out%
24.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — UConn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UConn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 229 | 358 |
| Points / Game | 19.1 | 29.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 216 | 259 |
| Rushing | 97 | 94 |
| Passing | 100 | 140 |
| Penalty | 19 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 395 | 420 |
| Yards | 1,639 | 1,772 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 136.6 | 147.7 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 378 |
| Completions | 219 | 256 |
| Completion % | 57.5% | 67.7% |
| Yards | 2,284 | 3,106 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 114.56 | 150.16 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 776 | 798 |
| Yards | 3,923 | 4,878 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 326.9 | 406.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 23 |
| Yards | 40 | 235 |
| Average | 3.6 | 10.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 22 |
| Yards | 628 | 469 |
| Average | 19.0 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,752 | 1,761 |
| Average | 45.1 | 38.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 7 |
| Yards | 45 | 226 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 17 |
| Lost | 10 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 67 |
| Yards | 660 | 548 |
| Yards / Game | 55.0 | 45.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:16 | 28:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 154 |
| Conversions | 59 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 35.5% | 42.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 18 |
| Conversions | 8 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 32 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 35 |
| Score % | 78.1% | 79.5% |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 25 |
| TD % | 53.1% | 56.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 20 |
| Made | 10 | 13 |
| Pct | 58.8% | 65.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 43 |
| Made | 23 | 43 |
| Pct | 88.5% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.