Fourth Down Data
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MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersPass-Heavy
Conference USA3-9#127 (-16.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
18· DRating
27· DPer play
23· DConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
21· DPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.153
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.067
Defensive EPA/play
+0.064
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.196
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#127
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#102
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 48 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
6th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4232Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3713Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3714Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3595Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA348

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Austin Peay14-34L-15.5L53.5U
2@ Wisconsin10-42L+17.5L43.5O
3@ Nevada14-13W+12.5W43U
4vs Marshall28-42L+2.5L46.5O
5@ Kennesaw State16-24L+7.0L53.5U
7vs Missouri State20-22L----
9@ Delaware28-31L+3.5W54.5U
10vs Jacksonville State21-24L----
11vs Florida International30-56L+2.5L63.5O
12@ Western Kentucky26-42L+16.5W59.5O
13vs Sam Houston31-17W-6.5W46.5O
14@ New Mexico State31-24W-4.5W44.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off24thRush Off24thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off8thPass Def21thRush Def27thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07429th+0.06519th
Red Zone-0.11425th+0.08230th
Third Down-0.2118th+0.25510th
No Garbage Time-0.06728th+0.05724th
First Half-0.09621th+0.05823th
Second Half-0.05230th+0.07319th
Early Downs-0.01947th+0.04519th
Passing Downs-0.10724th+0.08621th
Standard Downs-0.05724th+0.05527th
Goal to Go-0.14027th+0.17227th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.3%Rush 38.7%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
371.6
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
21.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points269371
Points / Game22.430.9
First Downs
Total234259
Rushing6897
Passing144135
Penalty2227
Rushing
Attempts316440
Yards1,2661,717
Yards / Carry4.03.9
Yards / Game105.5143.1
Touchdowns1117
Passing
Attempts500374
Completions298241
Completion %59.6%64.4%
Yards3,1933,074
Yards / Attempt6.48.2
Touchdowns2331
Interceptions710
Passer Rating125.62155.49
Total Offense
Plays816814
Yards4,4594,791
Yards / Play5.55.9
Yards / Game371.6399.3
Punt Returns
Returns1613
Yards109148
Average6.811.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1813
Yards382217
Average21.216.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6755
Yards2,9712,398
Average44.343.6
Interception Returns
Returns107
Yards155107
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1616
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties8854
Yards822514
Yards / Game68.542.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4631:14
Third Downs
Attempts175158
Conversions6463
Conversion %36.6%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2716
Conversions810
Conversion %29.6%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips4143
Scores (TD + FG)3239
Score %78.0%90.7%
Touchdowns2530
TD %61.0%69.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1418
Made1113
Pct78.6%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2845
Made2844
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts73
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →