Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-8#93 (-6.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
29· DRating
18· DPer play
25· DConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
39· DPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.062
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
+0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.124
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#95
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 69 spots higher
23 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
25th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Maryland2025OA -0.071 / +0.010similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, passing offense4212Bowling Green2021OA -0.136 / +0.005similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3983Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate3724UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3665Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA357

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs TCU14-48L+3.5L54.5O
2@ Charlotte20-3W-14.5W49.5U
3vs Richmond41-6W-36.5L44.5O
4@ UCF9-34L+24.5L46.5U
6vs Clemson10-38L+14.0L47O
8@ California18-21L----
9vs Virginia16-17L+10.5W51.5U
10@ Syracuse27-10W----
11vs Stanford20-15W-7.5L36.5U
12@ Wake Forest12-28L+7.5L41.5U
13vs Duke25-32L+9.5W50.5O
14@ NC State19-42L+7.0L49O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off12thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off10thPass Def86thRush Def28thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08422th-0.01449th
Red Zone-0.13919th-0.16781th
Third Down-0.19810th+0.13732th
No Garbage Time-0.10416th+0.01138th
First Half-0.1719th+0.05126th
Second Half+0.00155th-0.08474th
Early Downs-0.07419th-0.01647th
Passing Downs-0.05737th-0.14986th
Standard Downs-0.09812th+0.05228th
Goal to Go-0.08736th-0.46996th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.6%Rush 49.4%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.2
Yards/Game
288.8
Pts/Drive
1.76
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
34.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points231294
Points / Game19.324.5
First Downs
Total199250
Rushing72100
Passing104121
Penalty2329
Rushing
Attempts346433
Yards1,2631,508
Yards / Carry3.73.5
Yards / Game105.3125.7
Touchdowns1119
Passing
Attempts355385
Completions227245
Completion %63.9%63.6%
Yards2,2022,535
Yards / Attempt6.26.6
Touchdowns1315
Interceptions66
Passer Rating124.75128.69
Total Offense
Plays701818
Yards3,4654,043
Yards / Play4.94.9
Yards / Game288.8336.9
Punt Returns
Returns1717
Yards137152
Average8.18.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2212
Yards402244
Average18.320.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5651
Yards2,3892,104
Average42.741.3
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards7045
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1420
Lost96
Penalties
Penalties7962
Yards751610
Yards / Game62.650.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2531:35
Third Downs
Attempts157170
Conversions5872
Conversion %36.9%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1532
Conversions1124
Conversion %73.3%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips3544
Scores (TD + FG)2734
Score %77.1%77.3%
Touchdowns1823
TD %51.4%52.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2314
Made1912
Pct82.6%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2034
Made2034
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →