Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#66 (+0.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
25· DRating
27· DPer play
18· DConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
46· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.065
Defensive EPA/play
-0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.050
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.121
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#60
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 30 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
15th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate4412Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3953Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3794Nevada2019OA -0.084 / -0.008similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3595UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense356

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina17-10W----
2vs Middle Tennessee35-14W-19.5W53.5U
3@ West Virginia21-27L+2.5L50.5U
4vs Richmond21-10W-29.0L50U
6vs Notre Dame29-32L+0.5L47O
7vs Pittsburgh7-28L+4.8L57.75U
8vs Syracuse36-41L-3.0L45.5O
9@ Georgia Tech26-17W+4.3W55.5U
10@ Boston College3-17L----
11vs Duke48-17W-11.5W49.25O
12@ Miami26-38L+7.5L55.5O
13@ Virginia29-24W+7.0W62.5U
18vs Maryland10-54L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off23thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off40thPass Def59thRush Def44thRed Zone Def43th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05631th-0.00446th
Red Zone-0.08139th-0.00543th
Third Down+0.04440th-0.04573th
No Garbage Time-0.07125th-0.00544th
First Half-0.04334th+0.04032th
Second Half-0.07321th-0.04159th
Early Downs-0.05930th-0.01650th
Passing Downs-0.04141th-0.02959th
Standard Downs-0.06523th+0.01044th
Goal to Go-0.12236th+0.4712th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
361.4
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
23.3%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points308329
Points / Game23.725.3
First Downs
Total245265
Rushing124122
Passing101123
Penalty2020
Rushing
Attempts532481
Yards2,4052,198
Yards / Carry4.54.6
Yards / Game185.0169.1
Touchdowns1620
Passing
Attempts316392
Completions173232
Completion %54.7%59.2%
Yards2,2932,914
Yards / Attempt7.37.4
Touchdowns1720
Interceptions510
Passer Rating130.29133.36
Total Offense
Plays848873
Yards4,6985,112
Yards / Play5.55.9
Yards / Game361.4393.2
Punt Returns
Returns2716
Yards328211
Average12.113.2
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3720
Yards875426
Average23.621.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6566
Yards2,8922,817
Average44.542.7
Interception Returns
Returns105
Yards9713
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1413
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties7083
Yards587741
Yards / Game45.257.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5530:01
Third Downs
Attempts180170
Conversions7460
Conversion %41.1%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1825
Conversions916
Conversion %50.0%64.0%
Red Zone
Trips4340
Scores (TD + FG)3535
Score %81.4%87.5%
Touchdowns2426
TD %55.8%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2214
Made1812
Pct81.8%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3441
Made3439
Pct100.0%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →