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ILL
Illinois
Fighting IlliniRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference5-7#81 (-1.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
39· DOverall
Offense
19· DRating
17· DPer play
16· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
51· CPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.095
Defensive EPA/play
-0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.9%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.069
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.59
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.72
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.27
own return game
Return Defense
-0.45
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#107
model 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
recruiting 26 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense27th
Opp-adjusted defense67th
Offensive EPA/play17th
Defensive EPA/play52th
Offensive success rate12th
Explosiveness14th
Defensive havoc51th
Points per drive14th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4802Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3953South Carolina2019OA -0.095 / +0.084similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, run defense3894Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, run defense3845Georgia Tech2022OA -0.050 / +0.061similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA378
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Nebraska | 30-22 | W | +7.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 1 | vs UTSA | 30-37 | L | -5.5 | L | 49.25 | O |
| 2 | @ Virginia | 14-42 | L | +11.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Maryland | 17-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Purdue | 9-13 | L | +10.5 | W | - | - |
| 5 | vs Charlotte | 24-14 | W | -11.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Wisconsin | 0-24 | L | +11.0 | L | 42 | U |
| 8 | @ Penn State | 20-18 | W | +23.8 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Rutgers | 14-20 | L | +1.5 | L | 42 | U |
| 10 | @ Minnesota | 14-6 | W | +14.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 12 | @ Iowa | 23-33 | L | +12.5 | W | 37.75 | O |
| 13 | vs Northwestern | 47-14 | W | -6.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.105 | 17th | -0.035 | 57th |
| Red Zone | -0.003 | 55th | -0.109 | 65th |
| Third Down | -0.207 | 9th | -0.194 | 91th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.093 | 19th | -0.025 | 51th |
| First Half | -0.083 | 24th | -0.081 | 73th |
| Second Half | -0.125 | 14th | +0.013 | 42th |
| Early Downs | +0.031 | 65th | +0.017 | 34th |
| Passing Downs | -0.290 | 4th | -0.185 | 87th |
| Standard Downs | +0.006 | 50th | +0.039 | 30th |
| Goal to Go | +0.637 | 100th | -0.126 | 65th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.8%Rush 59.2%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
329.8
Pts/Drive
1.59
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
24.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Illinois | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 242 | 263 |
| Points / Game | 20.2 | 21.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 211 | 252 |
| Rushing | 102 | 117 |
| Passing | 88 | 118 |
| Penalty | 21 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 468 | 477 |
| Yards | 2,083 | 1,822 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 173.6 | 151.8 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 322 | 363 |
| Completions | 165 | 213 |
| Completion % | 51.2% | 58.7% |
| Yards | 1,874 | 2,582 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.8 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 109.73 | 124.38 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 790 | 840 |
| Yards | 3,957 | 4,404 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 329.8 | 367.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 27 |
| Yards | 119 | 100 |
| Average | 7.0 | 3.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 10 |
| Yards | 49 | 241 |
| Average | 16.3 | 24.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 59 |
| Yards | 3,068 | 2,564 |
| Average | 45.1 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 39 | 42 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 13 |
| Lost | 6 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 59 |
| Yards | 645 | 588 |
| Yards / Game | 53.8 | 49.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:20 | 30:35 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 167 |
| Conversions | 68 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 38.2% | 35.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 18 |
| Conversions | 5 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 72.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 24 | 36 |
| Score % | 77.4% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 20 |
| TD % | 45.2% | 46.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 26 |
| Made | 18 | 18 |
| Pct | 78.3% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 30 |
| Made | 26 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 90.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 7 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.