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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#112 (-6.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
38· DRating
36· DPer play
42· CConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
33· DPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.064
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.038
Defensive EPA/play
+0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.88
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
market 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2024OA -0.006 / -0.031similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate4562Boston College2020OA +0.002 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3983Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3954Rice2021OA -0.045 / -0.110similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3785Hawai'i2021OA -0.081 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate377

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Mississippi State34-35L+23.0W52.5O
2vs Southeastern Louisiana45-42W-11.5L70.5O
3vs SMU37-39L+12.5W66O
4vs North Texas24-17W-11.0L65.5U
5@ NC State27-34L+19.5W54.5O
7@ UTEP3-19L-7.0L55.5U
8vs UTSA16-45L+7.0L60O
9@ Old Dominion20-23L-4.5L52.5U
10@ UAB38-52L+13.5L49.5O
11vs Charlotte42-32W-6.5W57O
12vs Southern Miss19-35L----
13@ Rice31-35L-3.5L52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-6
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off41thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off46thPass Def29thRush Def40thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03237th+0.03330th
Red Zone-0.23712th+0.2009th
Third Down+0.06146th+0.09647th
No Garbage Time-0.04633th+0.03333th
First Half+0.00948th+0.00646th
Second Half-0.07123th+0.06123th
Early Downs-0.06428th+0.04326th
Passing Downs-0.07629th+0.06129th
Standard Downs-0.01041th+0.01940th
Goal to Go-0.10639th+0.12231th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
384.0
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points336408
Points / Game28.034.0
First Downs
Total251275
Rushing81112
Passing139140
Penalty3123
Rushing
Attempts415442
Yards1,4671,998
Yards / Carry3.54.5
Yards / Game122.3166.5
Touchdowns1625
Passing
Attempts411413
Completions248271
Completion %60.3%65.6%
Yards3,1413,214
Yards / Attempt7.67.8
Touchdowns2225
Interceptions169
Passer Rating134.41146.60
Total Offense
Plays826855
Yards4,6085,212
Yards / Play5.66.1
Yards / Game384.0434.3
Punt Returns
Returns2214
Yards195209
Average8.914.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3545
Yards723921
Average20.720.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5547
Yards2,2422,090
Average40.844.5
Interception Returns
Returns916
Yards21197
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1319
Lost713
Penalties
Penalties8189
Yards625875
Yards / Game52.172.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3131:17
Third Downs
Attempts164155
Conversions6560
Conversion %39.6%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1724
Conversions810
Conversion %47.1%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips4452
Scores (TD + FG)3647
Score %81.8%90.4%
Touchdowns2437
TD %54.5%71.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2315
Made1712
Pct73.9%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3951
Made3950
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →