Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-5#85 (-2.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
56· CRating
54· CPer play
67· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
32· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
+0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.055
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.56
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#81
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
recruiting 56 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
60th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2017OA -0.022 / -0.007similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4032East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: run defense, havoc rate, passing offense4013Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3984San José State2019OA +0.064 / -0.097similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3845Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate371

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
3@ Duke26-6W+6.0W51.5U
4vs Texas State24-21W-17.5L57.5U
5vs North Carolina22-26L+14.5W54U
6vs Pittsburgh31-30W+6.0W44O
7@ Virginia Tech14-40L+12.0L62U
8vs Georgia Tech48-27W-3.5W54.5O
9@ Clemson28-34L+31.0W61O
10@ Syracuse16-13W-14.0L52.5U
11vs Notre Dame31-45L+13.5L49.5O
13vs Louisville34-27W-1.0W54.75O
14@ Virginia32-43L+4.0L54.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off41thRed Zone Off15th3rd Down Off64thPass Def27thRush Def31thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02153th+0.07927th
Red Zone-0.17915th-0.04056th
Third Down+0.14364th-0.01569th
No Garbage Time+0.02255th+0.08027th
First Half+0.05061th+0.08330th
Second Half-0.00943th+0.07534th
Early Downs-0.06628th+0.06127th
Passing Downs+0.10162th+0.13827th
Standard Downs-0.02241th+0.05231th
Goal to Go+0.18171th-0.26286th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.9%Rush 48.1%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
385.9
Pts/Drive
2.32
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points306312
Points / Game27.828.4
First Downs
Total240246
Rushing83102
Passing133115
Penalty2429
Rushing
Attempts361400
Yards1,1191,885
Yards / Carry3.14.7
Yards / Game101.7171.4
Touchdowns1121
Passing
Attempts390350
Completions242216
Completion %62.1%61.7%
Yards3,1262,700
Yards / Attempt8.07.7
Touchdowns2318
Interceptions89
Passer Rating144.74138.34
Total Offense
Plays751750
Yards4,2454,585
Yards / Play5.76.1
Yards / Game385.9416.8
Punt Returns
Returns1213
Yards5575
Average4.65.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2336
Yards406827
Average17.723.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4338
Yards1,8251,595
Average42.442.0
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards14853
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties8482
Yards725740
Yards / Game65.967.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0028:57
Third Downs
Attempts147141
Conversions6557
Conversion %44.2%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1416
Conversions913
Conversion %64.3%81.3%
Red Zone
Trips5142
Scores (TD + FG)4336
Score %84.3%85.7%
Touchdowns2526
TD %49.0%61.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made1814
Pct81.8%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3336
Made3232
Pct97.0%88.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →