Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#82 (-2.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
46· CRating
54· CPer play
48· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
40· CPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
43· C3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.014
Defensive EPA/play
+0.013
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 46 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2020OA +0.002 / -0.018similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4032Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3583Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3504Hawai'i2021OA -0.081 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, pass defense, rushing offense3435Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, havoc rate335

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ North Carolina35-30W+12.5W58O
2vs Weber State33-20W-25.5L--
3vs Ole Miss27-16W+7.0W68U
4vs USC20-30L+17.0W62.5U
5@ Oregon24-45L+17.0L66O
6@ Washington7-38L+28.5L55.5U
7vs Washington State37-3W+16.0W55U
8vs Arizona44-45L+5.0W66O
9@ Colorado28-44L+4.0L56O
10vs Oregon State37-23W-7.0W54O
12@ Stanford14-17L+14.0W57U
13@ UCLA27-30L+7.0W66U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS7-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off27thRed Zone Off6th3rd Down Off44thPass Def89thRush Def17thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01452th-0.01650th
Red Zone-0.2456th-0.32893th
Third Down-0.03344th-0.06960th
No Garbage Time-0.02048th+0.01342th
First Half-0.07830th+0.07229th
Second Half+0.04776th-0.10775th
Early Downs-0.08829th+0.04920th
Passing Downs+0.10776th-0.19089th
Standard Downs-0.08427th+0.06517th
Goal to Go-0.15429th-0.13067th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.4%Rush 46.6%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
384.5
Pts/Drive
2.17
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
22.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points333341
Points / Game27.828.4
First Downs
Total265269
Rushing96116
Passing139136
Penalty3017
Rushing
Attempts416475
Yards1,5071,969
Yards / Carry3.64.1
Yards / Game125.6164.1
Touchdowns1721
Passing
Attempts476413
Completions278267
Completion %58.4%64.6%
Yards3,1073,190
Yards / Attempt6.57.7
Touchdowns1918
Interceptions1214
Passer Rating121.36137.13
Total Offense
Plays892888
Yards4,6145,159
Yards / Play5.25.8
Yards / Game384.5429.9
Punt Returns
Returns917
Yards89178
Average9.910.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4632
Yards945680
Average20.521.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5446
Yards2,2671,840
Average42.040.0
Interception Returns
Returns1412
Yards193309
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1920
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties7891
Yards658815
Yards / Game54.867.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2930:31
Third Downs
Attempts193181
Conversions7880
Conversion %40.4%44.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2518
Conversions178
Conversion %68.0%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips4947
Scores (TD + FG)4038
Score %81.6%80.9%
Touchdowns2725
TD %55.1%53.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2727
Made2021
Pct74.1%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3639
Made3538
Pct97.2%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →