Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansPass-Heavy
Mountain West Conference5-7#96 (-7.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
66· CRating
71· BPer play
58· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
27· DPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.064
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.060
Defensive EPA/play
+0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.005
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.052
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
15th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
62th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2020OA +0.002 / -0.018similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3842East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3593Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3564Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3485Eastern Michigan2019OA +0.042 / -0.114similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense347

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Colorado35-18W-17.5L59.5U
2vs Tulsa16-34L+6.5L53.5U
4@ Arkansas31-24W+20.0W61U
5@ Air Force24-41L+19.5W58.5O
6vs New Mexico32-21W-6.5W70U
7@ Nevada38-41L+3.0P60.5O
8vs San Diego State17-27L+7.5L45.5U
9@ Army34-29W+10.0W55O
10vs Boise State42-52L+16.5W61O
11@ Hawai'i40-42L+7.5W79O
13@ UNLV35-38L-7.0L65.5O
14vs Fresno State17-16W-3.0L59U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off60thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off46thPass Def19thRush Def34thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07975th+0.06525th
Red Zone-0.03350th-0.00449th
Third Down+0.01046th+0.14425th
No Garbage Time+0.06069th+0.06525th
First Half+0.09276th+0.01546th
Second Half+0.06471th+0.11210th
Early Downs+0.09986th+0.00651th
Passing Downs+0.19588th+0.14719th
Standard Downs+0.01960th+0.02934th
Goal to Go-0.23025th+0.01544th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.8%Rush 38.2%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
427.4
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
40.9%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points361383
Points / Game30.131.9
First Downs
Total259280
Rushing62154
Passing171108
Penalty2618
Rushing
Attempts308578
Yards1,0732,785
Yards / Carry3.54.8
Yards / Game89.4232.1
Touchdowns1930
Passing
Attempts498340
Completions305208
Completion %61.2%61.2%
Yards4,0562,540
Yards / Attempt8.17.5
Touchdowns2416
Interceptions816
Passer Rating142.35130.05
Total Offense
Plays806918
Yards5,1295,325
Yards / Play6.45.8
Yards / Game427.4443.8
Punt Returns
Returns1011
Yards48134
Average4.812.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2534
Yards492704
Average19.720.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4741
Yards1,8671,636
Average39.739.9
Interception Returns
Returns168
Yards11650
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1425
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties74102
Yards608883
Yards / Game50.773.6
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2733:33
Third Downs
Attempts159178
Conversions6584
Conversion %40.9%47.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1626
Conversions716
Conversion %43.8%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips5650
Scores (TD + FG)4741
Score %83.9%82.0%
Touchdowns3233
TD %57.1%66.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2414
Made2013
Pct83.3%92.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3947
Made3746
Pct94.9%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →