Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#116 (-12.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
76· BPer play
78· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
6· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.156
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.077
Defensive EPA/play
+0.124
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
51.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.031
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#94
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
recruiting 45 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
6th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3952Kent State2021OA +0.004 / -0.162similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3733Vanderbilt2018OA +0.122 / -0.036similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3724North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3695SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense367

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Fresno State14-42L-1.0L49O
2@ USC20-59L+29.5L61.5O
3vs Jacksonville State41-34W-3.0W58.75O
4vs Maine45-17W-23.0W57.5O
5@ James Madison10-35L+16.5L54.5U
7vs Southern Miss35-38L----
8vs Georgia State41-24W-6.5W59.5O
9@ Arkansas State24-34L0.0L59.5U
11@ App State25-23W----
12vs Coastal Carolina45-40W-3.0W59.5O
13vs Old Dominion10-45L+10.5L62.5U
14@ Marshall24-19W+10.0W63.5U
18@ App State29-10W-10.0W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off64thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off78thPass Def24thRush Def5thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07676th+0.1137th
Red Zone+0.00452th-0.01147th
Third Down+0.25878th+0.2919th
No Garbage Time+0.06773th+0.1325th
First Half+0.02858th+0.12210th
Second Half+0.13286th+0.10510th
Early Downs+0.02263th+0.0977th
Passing Downs+0.16384th+0.07924th
Standard Downs+0.03464th+0.1305th
Goal to Go-0.12031th-0.25481th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
401.5
Pts/Drive
2.50
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points363420
Points / Game27.932.3
First Downs
Total287324
Rushing110145
Passing147155
Penalty3024
Rushing
Attempts463500
Yards2,0042,835
Yards / Carry4.35.7
Yards / Game154.2218.1
Touchdowns1835
Passing
Attempts432415
Completions272264
Completion %63.0%63.6%
Yards3,2163,126
Yards / Attempt7.47.5
Touchdowns2615
Interceptions912
Passer Rating141.19133.03
Total Offense
Plays895915
Yards5,2205,961
Yards / Play5.86.5
Yards / Game401.5458.5
Punt Returns
Returns1115
Yards73109
Average6.67.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3835
Yards838886
Average22.125.3
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts5641
Yards2,3971,611
Average42.839.3
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards29128
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1421
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties6989
Yards653739
Yards / Game50.256.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3030:29
Third Downs
Attempts176167
Conversions7977
Conversion %44.9%46.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1619
Conversions99
Conversion %56.3%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips5258
Scores (TD + FG)4649
Score %88.5%84.5%
Touchdowns3135
TD %59.6%60.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1717
Pct85.0%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4249
Made4249
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →