Fourth Down Data
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KENT

Kent State

Golden FlashesRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference7-7#107 (-5.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
71· BRating
82· BPer play
86· BConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
9· FPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.162
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.082
Defensive EPA/play
+0.134
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
51.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.081
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.65

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
-2.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.28
own return game
Return Defense
+1.72
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#76
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 35 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kent State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3742North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3523UNLV2017OA +0.008 / -0.156similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3384Texas Tech2024OA +0.014 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3335Ole Miss2021OA +0.044 / +0.010similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, turnover rate330

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas A&M10-41L+28.5L67U
2vs VMI60-10W-19.0W72.5U
3@ Iowa7-30L+23.0P55.75U
4@ Maryland16-37L+13.5L71U
5vs Bowling Green27-20W-16.5L55.75U
6vs Buffalo48-38W-6.0W65O
7@ Western Michigan31-64L+6.5L65.5O
8@ Ohio34-27W-5.5W66U
10vs Northern Illinois52-47W+2.5L75O
11@ Central Michigan30-54L----
12@ Akron38-0W-13.0W74.75U
13vs Miami (OH)48-47W-1.0P65.5O
14@ Northern Illinois23-41L-3.5L74.5U
17@ Wyoming38-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-2
41.7%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
7-7
50.0%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS2-6
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS0-5
Last 5 ATS
LWPLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off86thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off64thPass Def19thRush Def8thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08082th+0.11611th
Red Zone-0.15125th-0.00141th
Third Down+0.14364th+0.3299th
No Garbage Time+0.08182th+0.1448th
First Half+0.11485th+0.02637th
Second Half+0.04267th+0.2092th
Early Downs+0.08888th+0.04126th
Passing Downs+0.03259th+0.11019th
Standard Downs+0.10086th+0.1198th
Goal to Go-0.26817th+0.01847th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.5%Rush 61.5%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
15.2%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
493.4
Pts/Drive
2.65
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Kent State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKent StateOpponents
Scoring
Points462508
Points / Game33.036.3
First Downs
Total362364
Rushing197156
Passing135175
Penalty3033
Rushing
Attempts647579
Yards3,4832,882
Yards / Carry5.45.0
Yards / Game248.8205.9
Touchdowns3640
Passing
Attempts405487
Completions261308
Completion %64.4%63.2%
Yards3,4253,724
Yards / Attempt8.57.6
Touchdowns2123
Interceptions616
Passer Rating149.63136.49
Total Offense
Plays1,0521,066
Yards6,9086,606
Yards / Play6.66.2
Yards / Game493.4471.9
Punt Returns
Returns158
Yards8223
Average5.52.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5755
Yards1,140853
Average20.015.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5438
Yards1,9591,642
Average36.343.2
Interception Returns
Returns166
Yards134116
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles915
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties10980
Yards993789
Yards / Game70.956.4
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4033:18
Third Downs
Attempts202200
Conversions8895
Conversion %43.6%47.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2735
Conversions1321
Conversion %48.1%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips6864
Scores (TD + FG)5654
Score %82.4%84.4%
Touchdowns3739
TD %54.4%60.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2823
Made2119
Pct75.0%82.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5260
Made5157
Pct98.1%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →