Fourth Down Data
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UNLV

UNLV

RebelsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference5-7#109 (-12.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
47· CRating
68· CPer play
75· BConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
16· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.156
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.034
Defensive EPA/play
+0.089
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
51.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 34 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3782Kent State2021OA +0.004 / -0.162similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3383Colorado2019OA +0.033 / -0.061similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3294UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3265North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate325

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Howard40-43L-45.0L--
2@ Idaho44-16W+4.0W69.5U
4@ Ohio State21-54L+40.5W67O
5vs San José State41-13W-16.5W62U
6vs San Diego State10-41L+8.5L54.5U
7@ Air Force30-34L+9.5W65.5U
8vs Utah State28-52L-3.5L59O
9@ Fresno State26-16W+22.0W58.5U
10vs Hawai'i31-23W-7.0W59U
11vs BYU21-31L--49O
12@ New Mexico38-35W+2.5W55O
13@ Nevada16-23L+3.5L70U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off95thRed Zone Off21th3rd Down Off53thPass Def67thRush Def4thRed Zone Def43th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03570th+0.07720th
Red Zone-0.12621th+0.04143th
Third Down+0.01553th+0.10528th
No Garbage Time+0.04472th+0.10214th
First Half+0.10686th+0.11016th
Second Half-0.04341th+0.04526th
Early Downs+0.08188th+0.1364th
Passing Downs-0.15116th-0.08967th
Standard Downs+0.12795th+0.1484th
Goal to Go-0.06539th+0.13029th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.2%Rush 63.8%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
12.4%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
427.1
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
15.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUNLVOpponents
Scoring
Points346381
Points / Game28.831.8
First Downs
Total254288
Rushing142158
Passing97116
Penalty1514
Rushing
Attempts528530
Yards2,8822,872
Yards / Carry5.55.4
Yards / Game240.2239.3
Touchdowns2932
Passing
Attempts299348
Completions162215
Completion %54.2%61.8%
Yards2,2432,632
Yards / Attempt7.57.6
Touchdowns1016
Interceptions97
Passer Rating122.21136.46
Total Offense
Plays827878
Yards5,1255,504
Yards / Play6.26.3
Yards / Game427.1458.7
Punt Returns
Returns916
Yards65228
Average7.214.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3750
Yards6171,072
Average16.721.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4941
Yards1,8491,658
Average37.740.4
Interception Returns
Returns79
Yards106114
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties5665
Yards479620
Yards / Game39.951.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1128:49
Third Downs
Attempts172160
Conversions7070
Conversion %40.7%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2026
Conversions1214
Conversion %60.0%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips5063
Scores (TD + FG)4350
Score %86.0%79.4%
Touchdowns2737
TD %54.0%58.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2817
Made2213
Pct78.6%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3947
Made3844
Pct97.4%93.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →