Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#87 (-5.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
44· CRating
70· BPer play
75· BConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
10· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.057
Defensive EPA/play
+0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
50.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.058
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 41 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
27th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas Tech2019OA +0.040 / -0.069similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3922Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3553Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: offensive success rate, run defense, passing offense3324UNLV2017OA +0.008 / -0.156similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3295Missouri2021OA +0.061 / -0.103similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate322

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colorado State52-31W-12.0W55O
2vs Nebraska34-31W+4.0W64O
3vs Air Force23-30L-3.0L58U
4@ Arizona State34-31W+7.5W49O
6vs Arizona30-35L-2.5L63.5O
7@ Oregon3-45L+22.5L61.5U
8@ Washington State10-41L+13.5L69U
9vs USC31-35L+10.5W65O
10@ UCLA14-31L+6.5L65U
11vs Stanford16-13W+4.0W57U
13vs Washington20-14W+14.0W53.5U
14@ Utah15-45L+28.0L49O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off81thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off66thPass Def14thRush Def13thRed Zone Def43th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04060th+0.10810th
Red Zone-0.19520th+0.02243th
Third Down+0.11766th+0.17619th
No Garbage Time+0.05768th+0.1178th
First Half+0.03460th+0.1604th
Second Half+0.04665th+0.05825th
Early Downs+0.02259th+0.09610th
Passing Downs-0.04436th+0.16914th
Standard Downs+0.08181th+0.08113th
Goal to Go-0.35311th+0.28010th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
388.5
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
15.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points282382
Points / Game23.531.8
First Downs
Total257261
Rushing10997
Passing127150
Penalty2114
Rushing
Attempts436409
Yards1,8041,843
Yards / Carry4.14.5
Yards / Game150.3153.6
Touchdowns1421
Passing
Attempts411406
Completions257267
Completion %62.5%65.8%
Yards2,8583,460
Yards / Attempt7.08.5
Touchdowns1828
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating130.04154.69
Total Offense
Plays847815
Yards4,6625,303
Yards / Play5.56.5
Yards / Game388.5441.9
Punt Returns
Returns1015
Yards57200
Average5.713.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2215
Yards480305
Average21.820.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5943
Yards2,6191,953
Average44.445.4
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards40122
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1114
Lost36
Penalties
Penalties8573
Yards726730
Yards / Game60.560.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:25
Third Downs
Attempts179156
Conversions7474
Conversion %41.3%47.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2013
Conversions127
Conversion %60.0%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips4343
Scores (TD + FG)3436
Score %79.1%83.7%
Touchdowns2027
TD %46.5%62.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2216
Made1711
Pct77.3%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3250
Made3149
Pct96.9%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →