Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-8#49 (+3.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
68· CPer play
71· BConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
16· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.069
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.100
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.045
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#49
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#52
model 3 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2019OA +0.033 / -0.061similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3922Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate3693Indiana2018OA +0.054 / -0.031similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3514Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3495Nebraska2018OA +0.111 / -0.034similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate336

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Montana State45-10W-28.0W60U
2vs UTEP38-3W-34.5W64U
3@ Arizona14-28L-1.0L75U
5@ Oklahoma16-55L+27.0L68.5O
6vs Oklahoma State45-35W+9.0W62.5O
7@ Baylor30-33L+10.5W58.5O
8vs Iowa State24-34L+10.0P58P
9@ Kansas34-37L-6.0L65.5O
11@ West Virginia38-17W-2.5W57.5U
12vs TCU31-33L+3.5W53.5O
13vs Kansas State27-30L+1.0L57.5U
14@ Texas24-49L+7.5L65O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off69thRush Off60thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off60thPass Def5thRush Def69thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04363th+0.08319th
Red Zone-0.06943th-0.20284th
Third Down+0.07860th+0.16621th
No Garbage Time+0.04463th+0.08719th
First Half+0.01252th+0.01945th
Second Half+0.07773th+0.1475th
Early Downs+0.04770th+0.00353th
Passing Downs+0.09769th+0.3055th
Standard Downs+0.01960th-0.03669th
Goal to Go-0.04948th+0.00146th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.8%Rush 43.2%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
474.3
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points366364
Points / Game30.530.3
First Downs
Total298265
Rushing9898
Passing176147
Penalty2420
Rushing
Attempts404471
Yards1,7952,070
Yards / Carry4.44.4
Yards / Game149.6172.5
Touchdowns2024
Passing
Attempts531403
Completions342247
Completion %64.4%61.3%
Yards3,8963,694
Yards / Attempt7.39.2
Touchdowns2421
Interceptions814
Passer Rating137.94148.53
Total Offense
Plays935874
Yards5,6915,764
Yards / Play6.16.6
Yards / Game474.3480.3
Punt Returns
Returns159
Yards8847
Average5.95.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3624
Yards779636
Average21.626.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5963
Yards2,6572,614
Average45.041.5
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards16271
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles169
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties7582
Yards695777
Yards / Game57.964.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1431:46
Third Downs
Attempts178180
Conversions6875
Conversion %38.2%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2515
Conversions128
Conversion %48.0%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips5148
Scores (TD + FG)4541
Score %88.2%85.4%
Touchdowns2826
TD %54.9%54.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2223
Made2015
Pct90.9%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4141
Made4037
Pct97.6%90.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →