Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
IU

Indiana

HoosiersBalanced
Big Ten Conference5-7#87 (-1.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
62· CRating
44· CPer play
54· CConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
26· DPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.011
Defensive EPA/play
+0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
72th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
54th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
42th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1USC2021OA +0.029 / -0.095similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense4392Ball State2018OA -0.048 / -0.110similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3723Georgia Southern2023OA -0.070 / -0.060similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3624Texas Tech2019OA +0.040 / -0.069similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3515Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA344

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida International38-28W-13.0L55O
2vs Virginia20-16W-5.0L48.5U
3vs Ball State38-10W-15.5W61.5U
4vs Michigan State21-35L+5.5L51O
5@ Rutgers24-17W-14.5L50.5U
6@ Ohio State26-49L+27.5W63O
7vs Iowa16-42L+3.5L52O
8vs Penn State28-33L+14.0W56.5O
9@ Minnesota31-38L-2.5L54O
11vs Maryland34-32W-1.0W55O
12@ Michigan20-31L+28.0W53.5U
13vs Purdue21-28L+3.5L65U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off27thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off40thPass Def20thRush Def35thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00645th+0.05424th
Red Zone-0.16114th+0.02945th
Third Down+0.01840th+0.24417th
No Garbage Time-0.00546th+0.05727th
First Half+0.07472th+0.05727th
Second Half-0.08618th+0.05233th
Early Downs-0.01746th-0.02452th
Passing Downs+0.07672th+0.11420th
Standard Downs-0.04627th+0.02435th
Goal to Go+0.11358th+0.09550th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
415.2
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points317359
Points / Game26.429.9
First Downs
Total282272
Rushing106115
Passing143129
Penalty3328
Rushing
Attempts428479
Yards1,8882,198
Yards / Carry4.44.6
Yards / Game157.3183.2
Touchdowns1717
Passing
Attempts481369
Completions316225
Completion %65.7%61.0%
Yards3,0942,887
Yards / Attempt6.47.8
Touchdowns2027
Interceptions1313
Passer Rating128.04143.80
Total Offense
Plays909848
Yards4,9825,085
Yards / Play5.56.0
Yards / Game415.2423.8
Punt Returns
Returns1615
Yards14757
Average9.23.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1832
Yards335782
Average18.624.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5249
Yards2,0401,993
Average39.240.7
Interception Returns
Returns1313
Yards85108
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1322
Lost813
Penalties
Penalties7180
Yards729799
Yards / Game60.866.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4931:12
Third Downs
Attempts184162
Conversions7868
Conversion %42.4%42.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2919
Conversions1414
Conversion %48.3%73.7%
Red Zone
Trips4449
Scores (TD + FG)3644
Score %81.8%89.8%
Touchdowns2529
TD %56.8%59.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1515
Pct83.3%93.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3342
Made3240
Pct97.0%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →