USC Trojans Football Analytics

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USC

TrojansBalanced

Big Ten Conference4-8#93 (-2.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall

Offense

57· CRating

46· CPer play

57· CConsistency

65· CBig plays

Defense

14· FRating

10· FPer play

16· DConsistency

Situational

36· DRed-zone O

24· DRed-zone D

49· C3rd down O

10· F3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.029

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.095

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.001

Defensive EPA/play

+0.124

lower = better

Off Success Rate

47.5%

Def Success Rate

48.5%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

25.3%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

27.9%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.123

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

-0.016

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

-0.52

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.04

own kicking game

Kick Defense

-0.36

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.03

own return game

Return Defense

-0.23

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#93

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

—

Market (Vegas)

#50

market 43 higher

Recruiting Rank

#16

recruiting 77 spots higher

38 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

62th

Opp-adjusted defense

16th

Offensive EPA/play

47th

Defensive EPA/play

10th

Offensive success rate

62th

Explosiveness

65th

Defensive havoc

20th

Points per drive

53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2018OA +0.054 / -0.031similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense439 2Arkansas State2024OA +0.004 / -0.063similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, rushing offense352 3Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate345 4Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: run defense, passing offense, takeaway rate343 5Arkansas State2026OA +0.049 / -0.034similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA333

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs San José State	30-7	W	-14.0	W	59.5	U
2	vs Stanford	28-42	L	-16.5	L	51.5	O
3	@ Washington State	45-14	W	-8.5	W	62	U
4	vs Oregon State	27-45	L	-11.0	L	62.5	O
5	@ Colorado	37-14	W	-7.5	W	51	P
6	vs Utah	26-42	L	-3.0	L	52.75	O
8	@ Notre Dame	16-31	L	+7.0	L	58	U
9	vs Arizona	41-34	W	-21.0	L	56.5	O
10	@ Arizona State	16-31	L	+8.5	L	59.5	U
12	vs UCLA	33-62	L	+3.0	L	65.5	O
13	vs BYU	31-35	L	+7.0	W	64.25	O
14	@ California	14-24	L	+4.5	L	57.5	U

Betting Profile

ATS Record

4-8

33.3%

O/U Record

6-5-1

54.5%

Straight Up

4-8

33.3%

Home ATS2-5

Away ATS2-3

Favorite ATS3-4

Underdog ATS1-4

Last 5 ATS

LLLWL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.030	56th	+0.108	12th
Red Zone	-0.094	36th	+0.097	24th
Third Down	+0.079	50th	+0.326	10th
No Garbage Time	+0.000	47th	+0.124	10th
First Half	+0.029	56th	+0.192	4th
Second Half	+0.031	62th	+0.030	33th
Early Downs	+0.021	60th	+0.028	31th
Passing Downs	-0.072	31th	+0.165	9th
Standard Downs	+0.082	77th	+0.079	17th
Goal to Go	+0.036	63th	-0.091	62th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.5%Rush 44.5%

Havoc/Game

10.1

Havoc Rate

15.4%

TO Margin

-0.1

Explosive/G

17.1

Yards/Game

443.9

Pts/Drive

2.25

3rd Down%

46.0%

3&Out%

13.7%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	USC	Opponents
Scoring
Points	344	381
Points / Game	28.7	31.8
First Downs
Total	309	255
Rushing	112	98
Passing	166	127
Penalty	31	30
Rushing
Attempts	401	436
Yards	1,747	1,983
Yards / Carry	4.4	4.5
Yards / Game	145.6	165.3
Touchdowns	16	28
Passing
Attempts	500	331
Completions	318	216
Completion %	63.6%	65.3%
Yards	3,580	2,902
Yards / Attempt	7.2	8.8
Touchdowns	21	20
Interceptions	13	14
Passer Rating	132.40	150.38
Total Offense
Plays	901	767
Yards	5,327	4,885
Yards / Play	5.9	6.4
Yards / Game	443.9	407.1
Punt Returns
Returns	16	10
Yards	76	66
Average	4.8	6.6
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	28	16
Yards	617	409
Average	22.0	25.6
Touchdowns	0	1
Punting
Punts	44	43
Yards	1,978	1,921
Average	45.0	44.7
Interception Returns
Returns	14	13
Yards	60	242
Touchdowns	1	2
Fumbles
Fumbles	9	12
Lost	7	5
Penalties
Penalties	95	86
Yards	885	828
Yards / Game	73.8	69.0
Time of Possession
Per Game	30:36	29:24
Third Downs
Attempts	176	137
Conversions	81	59
Conversion %	46.0%	43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	15	17
Conversions	10	13
Conversion %	66.7%	76.5%
Red Zone
Trips	51	47
Scores (TD + FG)	46	38
Score %	90.2%	80.9%
Touchdowns	28	34
TD %	54.9%	72.3%
Field Goals
Attempts	28	11
Made	23	6
Pct	82.1%	54.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	34	51
Made	33	51
Pct	97.1%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	5	1
Made	4	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →