Fourth Down Data
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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#118 (-6.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
29· DRating
62· CPer play
35· DConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
9· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.063
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.036
Defensive EPA/play
+0.119
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
50.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.083
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.121
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#106
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 38 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3932Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3773Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3594UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3585Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA354

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas34-31W-10.5L56.5O
2vs Tulsa28-24W-6.5L64.5U
3@ Michigan18-28L+23.0W47.5U
4@ Iowa State7-52L+21.0L51.5O
6vs South Alabama18-16W+3.5W61.5U
7@ Texas State9-41L+14.5L64U
8@ Southern Miss44-28W-6.5W55O
9vs Troy34-31W-7.5L50.75O
11@ Louisiana19-55L+16.5L60.5O
12@ Georgia State27-20W+2.5W59U
13vs UL Monroe28-21W-3.0W52.5U
14vs Old Dominion32-40L+4.0L58.5O
18@ Bowling Green38-31W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off59thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off64thPass Def2thRush Def19thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06474th+0.1295th
Red Zone+0.02353th+0.2389th
Third Down+0.15864th+0.3636th
No Garbage Time+0.04466th+0.11610th
First Half+0.02557th+0.10113th
Second Half+0.10481th+0.1595th
Early Downs-0.00755th+0.03127th
Passing Downs+0.14683th+0.2572th
Standard Downs+0.02059th+0.07219th
Goal to Go-0.05637th+0.5880th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
384.4
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
19.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points336418
Points / Game25.832.2
First Downs
Total284297
Rushing113135
Passing144138
Penalty2724
Rushing
Attempts488483
Yards2,0402,752
Yards / Carry4.25.7
Yards / Game156.9211.7
Touchdowns1832
Passing
Attempts442389
Completions274245
Completion %62.0%63.0%
Yards2,9573,251
Yards / Attempt6.78.4
Touchdowns1923
Interceptions1014
Passer Rating127.85145.50
Total Offense
Plays930872
Yards4,9976,003
Yards / Play5.46.9
Yards / Game384.4461.8
Punt Returns
Returns1515
Yards277147
Average18.59.8
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3231
Yards631551
Average19.717.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5847
Yards2,4831,984
Average42.842.2
Interception Returns
Returns1410
Yards10747
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1316
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties7394
Yards672762
Yards / Game51.758.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0330:57
Third Downs
Attempts196162
Conversions8077
Conversion %40.8%47.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2021
Conversions1514
Conversion %75.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4549
Scores (TD + FG)4143
Score %91.1%87.8%
Touchdowns2738
TD %60.0%77.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2515
Made2112
Pct84.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3354
Made3352
Pct100.0%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →