Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
GAST

Georgia State

PanthersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference3-9#120 (-6.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
41· CRating
58· CPer play
17· DConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
10· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.031
Defensive EPA/play
+0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.044
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.81
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
59th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1East Carolina2019OA +0.024 / -0.138similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3992UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3813Arkansas State2024OA +0.004 / -0.063similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3774Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense3755Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate361

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia Tech12-35L+21.0L55.5U
2vs Chattanooga24-21W-10.0L52.5U
3vs Vanderbilt36-32W+10.5W44O
5vs Georgia Southern21-38L-3.5L58O
7vs Old Dominion14-21L+9.0L51.5O
8@ Marshall20-35L----
9@ App State26-33L+7.5W48.5O
10@ UConn27-34L----
11@ James Madison7-38L+16.5L54U
12vs Arkansas State20-27L-2.5L59U
13@ Texas State52-44W+20.0W57.5O
14vs Coastal Carolina27-48L-1.0L55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off16thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off34thPass Def7thRush Def37thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01554th+0.09013th
Red Zone-0.08630th+0.3244th
Third Down+0.02734th+0.17430th
No Garbage Time+0.02859th+0.1209th
First Half+0.06369th+0.1407th
Second Half-0.03128th+0.03734th
Early Downs-0.03937th-0.00237th
Passing Downs+0.17787th+0.2127th
Standard Downs-0.07516th+0.03137th
Goal to Go-0.22217th+0.2608th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.2%Rush 44.8%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
389.0
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points286406
Points / Game23.833.8
First Downs
Total249265
Rushing83129
Passing142118
Penalty2418
Rushing
Attempts365483
Yards1,5992,524
Yards / Carry4.45.2
Yards / Game133.3210.3
Touchdowns1328
Passing
Attempts449323
Completions271204
Completion %60.4%63.2%
Yards3,0692,500
Yards / Attempt6.87.7
Touchdowns2122
Interceptions139
Passer Rating127.42145.08
Total Offense
Plays814806
Yards4,6685,024
Yards / Play5.76.2
Yards / Game389.0418.7
Punt Returns
Returns1225
Yards24475
Average2.019.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3111
Yards518199
Average16.718.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5246
Yards2,2771,869
Average43.840.6
Interception Returns
Returns913
Yards45138
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1412
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties6179
Yards589700
Yards / Game49.158.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5830:02
Third Downs
Attempts159153
Conversions5769
Conversion %35.8%45.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2617
Conversions1012
Conversion %38.5%70.6%
Red Zone
Trips3951
Scores (TD + FG)3144
Score %79.5%86.3%
Touchdowns2139
TD %53.8%76.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1612
Pct76.2%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3046
Made3046
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts46
Made15
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →