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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsBalancedMid-American Conference2-10#104 (-10.67)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
59· CRating
35· DPer play
19· DConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
10· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.172
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.054
Defensive EPA/play
+0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
52.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.163
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.128
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.94
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense64th
Opp-adjusted defense3th
Offensive EPA/play35th
Defensive EPA/play11th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness50th
Defensive havoc19th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Arizona2024OA -0.017 / -0.032similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4352Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense3753UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense3704Charlotte2024OA -0.021 / -0.045similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3635Duke2021OA -0.141 / -0.122similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, rushing offense358
2017 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan State | 10-35 | L | +17.5 | L | 56 | U |
| 2 | vs South Dakota | 27-35 | L | -4.0 | L | - | - |
| 3 | @ Northwestern | 7-49 | L | +21.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Middle Tennessee | 13-24 | L | +6.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 5 | vs Akron | 23-34 | L | +3.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Miami (OH) | 37-29 | W | +17.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Ohio | 30-48 | L | +9.5 | L | 62 | O |
| 8 | vs Northern Illinois | 17-48 | L | +14.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Kent State | 44-16 | W | -1.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 11 | @ Buffalo | 28-38 | L | +7.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Toledo | 37-66 | L | +17.0 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Eastern Michigan | 31-34 | L | +14.0 | W | 62.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS2-8
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.092 | 22th | +0.069 | 21th |
| Red Zone | -0.148 | 18th | +0.166 | 16th |
| Third Down | +0.041 | 57th | +0.040 | 38th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.064 | 32th | +0.105 | 13th |
| First Half | -0.078 | 31th | +0.129 | 13th |
| Second Half | -0.106 | 23th | +0.003 | 41th |
| Early Downs | -0.040 | 47th | -0.013 | 43th |
| Passing Downs | -0.046 | 42th | +0.288 | 2th |
| Standard Downs | -0.118 | 17th | -0.029 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | -0.113 | 32th | +0.027 | 44th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
386.7
Pts/Drive
1.94
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
18.6%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 12 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 304 | 456 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 38.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 232 | 313 |
| Rushing | 94 | 152 |
| Passing | 117 | 136 |
| Penalty | 21 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 430 | 544 |
| Yards | 1,820 | 3,039 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 151.7 | 253.3 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 35 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 417 | 376 |
| Completions | 226 | 221 |
| Completion % | 54.2% | 58.8% |
| Yards | 2,820 | 3,040 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 121.87 | 141.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 847 | 920 |
| Yards | 4,640 | 6,079 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Yards / Game | 386.7 | 506.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 15 |
| Yards | 104 | 64 |
| Average | 8.0 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 47 | 44 |
| Yards | 970 | 735 |
| Average | 20.6 | 16.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 47 |
| Yards | 2,641 | 1,923 |
| Average | 44.0 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 12 |
| Yards | 78 | 141 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 23 |
| Lost | 13 | 15 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 65 |
| Yards | 827 | 560 |
| Yards / Game | 68.9 | 46.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:13 | 32:47 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 161 |
| Conversions | 64 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 36.4% | 47.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 19 |
| Conversions | 6 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 47.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 55 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 47 |
| Score % | 90.5% | 85.5% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 39 |
| TD % | 52.4% | 70.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 15 |
| Made | 18 | 11 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 60 |
| Made | 32 | 57 |
| Pct | 97.0% | 95.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.