Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-8#108 (-5.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
31· DRating
30· DPer play
21· DConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
16· DPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.039
Defensive EPA/play
+0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.117
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.048
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#61
market 47 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
recruiting 67 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
27th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
32th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4352Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3773UCLA2025OA -0.026 / -0.044similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3664Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3575Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense353

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs New Mexico61-39W-31.0L58.5O
2vs Northern Arizona22-10W+7.0L59.5U
3@ Kansas State7-31L----
5@ Utah23-10W+10.0W47.5U
6vs Texas Tech22-28L-6.5L64U
7@ BYU19-41L+5.0L49.5O
8vs Colorado7-34L-3.5L57.5U
9vs West Virginia26-31L-3.0L54.5O
10@ UCF12-56L+6.0L55.5O
12vs Houston27-3W----
13@ TCU28-49L+11.5L59.5O
14vs Arizona State7-49L+9.0L53.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off18thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off84thPass Def19thRush Def30thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04128th+0.07018th
Red Zone+0.07865th+0.09826th
Third Down+0.27784th+0.16932th
No Garbage Time-0.04329th+0.07219th
First Half-0.10619th+0.1734th
Second Half+0.01448th-0.05874th
Early Downs-0.07421th+0.06016th
Passing Downs+0.00444th+0.12119th
Standard Downs-0.07018th+0.04530th
Goal to Go-0.14924th+0.15320th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.6%Rush 43.4%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
354.5
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
16.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points261381
Points / Game21.831.8
First Downs
Total222252
Rushing74113
Passing130117
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts335430
Yards1,2792,088
Yards / Carry3.84.9
Yards / Game106.6174.0
Touchdowns1125
Passing
Attempts437355
Completions262226
Completion %60.0%63.7%
Yards2,9752,868
Yards / Attempt6.88.1
Touchdowns1822
Interceptions138
Passer Rating124.78147.47
Total Offense
Plays772785
Yards4,2544,956
Yards / Play5.56.3
Yards / Game354.5413.0
Punt Returns
Returns1716
Yards95186
Average5.611.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns322
Yards71225
Average22.312.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4838
Yards2,0771,705
Average43.344.9
Interception Returns
Returns813
Yards29130
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties7860
Yards691534
Yards / Game57.644.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4529:59
Third Downs
Attempts170152
Conversions7363
Conversion %42.9%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1828
Conversions814
Conversion %44.4%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips2453
Scores (TD + FG)2144
Score %87.5%83.0%
Touchdowns1536
TD %62.5%67.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2315
Made1812
Pct78.3%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2547
Made2347
Pct92.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →