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TXST
Texas State
BobcatsBalancedPac-12 Conference4-8#113 (-6.38)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
16· DOverall
Offense
16· DRating
31· DPer play
28· DConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
17· DPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.092
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.137
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
+0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
50.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.147
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#104
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense17th
Opp-adjusted defense9th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play17th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness26th
Defensive havoc11th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3992Hawai'i2022OA -0.087 / -0.155similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate3863UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3864UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3795Arizona2024OA -0.017 / -0.032similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate377
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Baylor | 20-29 | L | +14.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Florida International | 23-17 | W | +1.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Incarnate Word | 34-42 | L | -10.5 | L | 66 | O |
| 4 | @ Eastern Michigan | 21-59 | L | +7.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 6 | vs South Alabama | 33-31 | W | +3.5 | W | 53 | O |
| 7 | vs Troy | 28-31 | L | +7.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 8 | @ Georgia State | 16-28 | L | +10.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Louisiana | 0-45 | L | +21.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 10 | vs UL Monroe | 27-19 | W | -3.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Georgia Southern | 30-38 | L | -2.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Coastal Carolina | 21-35 | L | +22.0 | W | 59 | U |
| 13 | @ Arkansas State | 24-22 | W | +2.0 | W | 62 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.072 | 23th | +0.099 | 13th |
| Red Zone | -0.050 | 47th | +0.003 | 40th |
| Third Down | +0.092 | 53th | +0.154 | 32th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.056 | 32th | +0.091 | 16th |
| First Half | -0.021 | 40th | +0.157 | 8th |
| Second Half | -0.126 | 13th | +0.042 | 27th |
| Early Downs | -0.112 | 15th | +0.045 | 24th |
| Passing Downs | -0.016 | 45th | +0.122 | 16th |
| Standard Downs | -0.106 | 15th | +0.088 | 15th |
| Goal to Go | +0.443 | 98th | -0.245 | 77th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
341.2
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
18.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 277 | 396 |
| Points / Game | 23.1 | 33.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 240 | 298 |
| Rushing | 106 | 132 |
| Passing | 109 | 146 |
| Penalty | 25 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 443 | 501 |
| Yards | 1,772 | 2,199 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 147.7 | 183.3 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 386 | 390 |
| Completions | 223 | 255 |
| Completion % | 57.8% | 65.4% |
| Yards | 2,322 | 2,962 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 27 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 114.91 | 150.49 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 829 | 891 |
| Yards | 4,094 | 5,161 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 341.2 | 430.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 14 |
| Yards | 86 | 86 |
| Average | 7.8 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 44 | 15 |
| Yards | 769 | 285 |
| Average | 17.5 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,362 | 1,791 |
| Average | 38.1 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 12 |
| Yards | 20 | 209 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 22 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 70 | 78 |
| Yards | 705 | 685 |
| Yards / Game | 58.8 | 57.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:15 | 31:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 170 | 179 |
| Conversions | 57 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 33.5% | 46.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 21 |
| Conversions | 16 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 69.6% | 71.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 41 |
| Score % | 86.1% | 82.0% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 30 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 26 |
| Made | 15 | 15 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 57.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 48 |
| Made | 32 | 47 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.