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CSU
Colorado State
RamsBalancedPac-12 Conference3-9#128 (-10.97)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
25· DPer play
38· DConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
14· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.133
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.071
Defensive EPA/play
+0.107
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
50.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.39
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#128
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense28th
Opp-adjusted defense7th
Offensive EPA/play25th
Defensive EPA/play15th
Offensive success rate40th
Explosiveness69th
Defensive havoc19th
Points per drive18th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3992Akron2022OA -0.103 / -0.081similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3773Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3764Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3635Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense363
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Hawai'i | 34-43 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 1 | vs Colorado | 13-45 | L | +7.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Arkansas | 34-27 | W | +14.0 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Florida | 10-48 | L | +21.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 4 | vs Illinois State | 19-35 | L | -4.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 6 | @ San José State | 42-30 | W | -3.0 | W | 59 | O |
| 7 | vs New Mexico | 20-18 | W | +1.5 | W | 63 | U |
| 8 | @ Boise State | 28-56 | L | +24.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Wyoming | 21-34 | L | +3.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Nevada | 10-49 | L | +14.0 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Utah State | 24-29 | L | +30.5 | W | 66.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Air Force | 19-27 | L | +14.5 | W | 64 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
3-8
27.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.034 | 33th | +0.108 | 13th |
| Red Zone | +0.066 | 64th | -0.102 | 69th |
| Third Down | +0.086 | 57th | +0.126 | 32th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.064 | 24th | +0.111 | 14th |
| First Half | -0.132 | 13th | +0.080 | 23th |
| Second Half | +0.054 | 69th | +0.142 | 8th |
| Early Downs | -0.008 | 51th | +0.118 | 8th |
| Passing Downs | -0.131 | 15th | +0.110 | 23th |
| Standard Downs | +0.021 | 59th | +0.108 | 11th |
| Goal to Go | +0.284 | 83th | +0.103 | 45th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 56.2%Rush 43.8%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
410.5
Pts/Drive
1.63
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
21.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 274 | 441 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 36.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 265 |
| Rushing | 84 | 133 |
| Passing | 165 | 115 |
| Penalty | 25 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 392 | 494 |
| Yards | 1,267 | 2,634 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.2 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 105.6 | 219.5 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 502 | 304 |
| Completions | 303 | 192 |
| Completion % | 60.4% | 63.2% |
| Yards | 3,659 | 2,784 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 9.2 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 30 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 132.30 | 168.04 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 894 | 798 |
| Yards | 4,926 | 5,418 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| Yards / Game | 410.5 | 451.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 31 |
| Yards | 55 | 561 |
| Average | 3.7 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 20 |
| Yards | 776 | 435 |
| Average | 20.4 | 21.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 53 |
| Yards | 3,140 | 2,183 |
| Average | 47.6 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 16 |
| Yards | 59 | 212 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 14 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 95 | 75 |
| Yards | 794 | 659 |
| Yards / Game | 66.2 | 54.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:06 | 28:54 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 145 |
| Conversions | 81 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 39.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 14 |
| Conversions | 9 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 40 |
| Score % | 82.1% | 85.1% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 27 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 57.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 11 | 16 |
| Pct | 61.1% | 88.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 52 |
| Made | 29 | 51 |
| Pct | 90.6% | 98.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.