Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference2-10#80 (-3.43)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
35· DPer play
49· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
12· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.094
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.046
Defensive EPA/play
+0.105
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.151
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.160
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.03

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#99
model 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#65
recruiting 15 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
12th
Offensive success rate
45th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
37th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4292Hawai'i2023OA -0.067 / -0.075similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3913Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3764Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3735Middle Tennessee2024OA -0.043 / -0.072similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense364

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Fordham66-10W-37.5W53.5O
2@ Michigan State40-42L+3.5W45.5O
3@ Stanford20-30L-14.0L45.5O
5vs California24-28L-2.5L47.5O
6@ Pittsburgh7-48L+6.5L57U
7vs Clemson10-41L+14.0L54.5U
8vs UConn23-38L-1.5L58O
9@ Louisville24-38L+25.5W54.5O
10vs Notre Dame10-25L+13.5L39.5U
11vs SMU13-45L+10.5L54.5O
12vs Georgia Tech34-36L+13.5W55.5O
14@ Syracuse34-12W-4.5W39.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off42thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off41thPass Def30thRush Def1thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03836th+0.1097th
Red Zone-0.11924th+0.04639th
Third Down+0.04241th+0.02559th
No Garbage Time-0.06032th+0.10612th
First Half+0.00045th+0.1754th
Second Half-0.08322th+0.04929th
Early Downs+0.01761th+0.1044th
Passing Downs-0.09230th+0.05030th
Standard Downs-0.01142th+0.1371th
Goal to Go-0.16424th+0.21121th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.6%Rush 45.4%
Havoc/Game
9.5
Havoc Rate
13.7%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
384.1
Pts/Drive
2.03
3rd Down%
38.6%
3&Out%
23.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points305393
Points / Game25.432.8
First Downs
Total250253
Rushing8196
Passing149131
Penalty2026
Rushing
Attempts377423
Yards1,2472,131
Yards / Carry3.35.0
Yards / Game103.9177.6
Touchdowns1625
Passing
Attempts454374
Completions287240
Completion %63.2%64.2%
Yards3,3623,068
Yards / Attempt7.48.2
Touchdowns2023
Interceptions126
Passer Rating134.67150.16
Total Offense
Plays831797
Yards4,6095,199
Yards / Play5.56.5
Yards / Game384.1433.3
Punt Returns
Returns1413
Yards11739
Average8.43.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2023
Yards376495
Average18.821.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5148
Yards2,0532,064
Average40.343.0
Interception Returns
Returns612
Yards7691
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost96
Penalties
Penalties7181
Yards596730
Yards / Game49.760.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1630:44
Third Downs
Attempts166153
Conversions6463
Conversion %38.6%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3019
Conversions1611
Conversion %53.3%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips4345
Scores (TD + FG)3740
Score %86.0%88.9%
Touchdowns2629
TD %60.5%64.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1721
Made1618
Pct94.1%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3545
Made3543
Pct100.0%95.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →