Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference3-9#118 (-8.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
29· DRating
38· DPer play
20· DConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
5· FPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.055
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.117
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.021
Defensive EPA/play
+0.156
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.178
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
29th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
39th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3622Bowling Green2018OA -0.008 / -0.193similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3523Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3484Rice2021OA -0.045 / -0.110similar: turnover rate, run defense, offensive EPA3425Colorado State2018OA -0.056 / -0.133similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, pass defense338

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisiana Tech26-30L+10.5W53O
2@ Oklahoma State13-55L+30.5L64O
3vs Texas State41-31W-10.0P49O
4@ Memphis35-52L+31.5W66O
5@ App State7-52L+25.0L55.5O
6@ Georgia Southern13-48L+13.0L56O
7vs Alabama State45-7W-27.5W55.5U
9vs Troy17-38L+11.0L52.5O
10@ Arkansas State14-38L+14.0L61.5U
11vs UL Monroe10-38L+7.5L63U
12@ Louisiana38-48L+19.0W66O
13vs Coastal Carolina31-28W+1.0W58.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off23thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off26thPass Def29thRush Def8thRed Zone Def17th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05623th+0.11710th
Red Zone+0.08671th+0.18417th
Third Down-0.07226th-0.04169th
No Garbage Time-0.01739th+0.1486th
First Half+0.04264th+0.2015th
Second Half-0.1684th+0.03339th
Early Downs-0.08017th+0.1742th
Passing Downs-0.04432th+0.09729th
Standard Downs-0.06323th+0.1278th
Goal to Go+0.36688th+0.13041th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.4%Rush 60.6%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
355.3
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
35.0%
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points290465
Points / Game24.238.8
First Downs
Total213269
Rushing96113
Passing94123
Penalty2333
Rushing
Attempts491484
Yards1,8242,436
Yards / Carry3.75.0
Yards / Game152.0203.0
Touchdowns1733
Passing
Attempts319320
Completions200207
Completion %62.7%64.7%
Yards2,4392,948
Yards / Attempt7.69.2
Touchdowns1926
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating140.31161.38
Total Offense
Plays810804
Yards4,2635,384
Yards / Play5.36.7
Yards / Game355.3448.7
Punt Returns
Returns718
Yards104193
Average14.910.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3838
Yards837801
Average22.021.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6744
Yards2,7921,813
Average41.741.2
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards115290
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1914
Lost126
Penalties
Penalties10773
Yards1,002681
Yards / Game83.556.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0129:59
Third Downs
Attempts177147
Conversions6255
Conversion %35.0%37.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2621
Conversions1610
Conversion %61.5%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips3955
Scores (TD + FG)3351
Score %84.6%92.7%
Touchdowns2740
TD %69.2%72.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1317
Made913
Pct69.2%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3559
Made3158
Pct88.6%98.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →