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BGSU
Bowling Green
FalconsBalancedMid-American Conference3-9#130 (-11.96)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
2· FOverall
Offense
21· DRating
31· DPer play
29· DConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
4· FPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.193
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.034
Defensive EPA/play
+0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
51.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.207
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.120
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 53 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense40th
Opp-adjusted defense2th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play5th
Offensive success rate21th
Explosiveness45th
Defensive havoc2th
Points per drive27th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Stanford2021OA -0.048 / -0.069similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3942Akron2021OA -0.032 / -0.191similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3543South Alabama2018OA -0.055 / -0.117similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3524Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3485East Carolina2026OA -0.001 / -0.051similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate342
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Oregon | 24-58 | L | +34.5 | W | 71 | O |
| 2 | vs Maryland | 14-45 | L | +13.5 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Eastern Kentucky | 42-35 | W | -14.0 | L | 65 | O |
| 4 | vs Miami (OH) | 23-38 | L | +6.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 5 | @ Georgia Tech | 17-63 | L | +28.0 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Toledo | 36-52 | L | +23.0 | W | 71 | O |
| 7 | vs Western Michigan | 35-42 | L | +14.5 | W | 68.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Ohio | 14-49 | L | +16.5 | L | 67 | U |
| 10 | vs Kent State | 28-35 | L | -1.5 | L | 67.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Central Michigan | 24-13 | W | +7.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Akron | 21-6 | W | +6.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Buffalo | 14-44 | L | +16.0 | L | 62 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.040 | 28th | +0.148 | 8th |
| Red Zone | +0.110 | 77th | +0.280 | 7th |
| Third Down | +0.026 | 44th | +0.295 | 10th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.050 | 26th | +0.180 | 3th |
| First Half | -0.023 | 39th | +0.164 | 9th |
| Second Half | -0.059 | 25th | +0.129 | 11th |
| Early Downs | -0.032 | 41th | +0.079 | 17th |
| Passing Downs | -0.097 | 20th | +0.096 | 30th |
| Standard Downs | -0.008 | 47th | +0.170 | 3th |
| Goal to Go | +0.365 | 87th | +0.448 | 3th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.3%Rush 50.7%
Havoc/Game
8.3
Havoc Rate
11.5%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
355.3
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
26.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 292 | 480 |
| Points / Game | 24.3 | 40.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 229 | 279 |
| Rushing | 78 | 175 |
| Passing | 128 | 78 |
| Penalty | 23 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 417 | 572 |
| Yards | 1,399 | 3,366 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 116.6 | 280.5 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 42 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 405 | 262 |
| Completions | 250 | 138 |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 52.7% |
| Yards | 2,864 | 2,011 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 138.34 | 139.02 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 822 | 834 |
| Yards | 4,263 | 5,377 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.4 |
| Yards / Game | 355.3 | 448.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 23 |
| Yards | 97 | 30 |
| Average | 5.7 | 1.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 35 |
| Yards | 600 | 652 |
| Average | 17.1 | 18.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 51 |
| Yards | 2,691 | 2,034 |
| Average | 37.9 | 39.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 13 |
| Yards | 20 | 157 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 9 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 79 |
| Yards | 788 | 741 |
| Yards / Game | 65.7 | 61.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:19 | 30:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 158 |
| Conversions | 69 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 39.0% | 44.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 25 |
| Conversions | 9 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 72.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 45 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 86.5% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 42 |
| TD % | 65.7% | 80.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 8 |
| Made | 6 | 6 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 65 |
| Made | 34 | 62 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.