Fourth Down Data
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AKR

Akron

ZipsBalanced
Mid-American Conference2-10#129 (-12.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
20· DRating
25· DPer play
22· DConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
5· FPer play
0· FConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.191
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.070
Defensive EPA/play
+0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
55.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.243
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.89
own return game
Return Defense
-0.45
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#125
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Akron ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
32th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
0th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Bowling Green2018OA -0.008 / -0.193similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3542Middle Tennessee2024OA -0.043 / -0.072similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3403Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3384Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3205UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense318

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Auburn10-60L+36.5L55O
2vs Temple24-45L+6.5L52.5O
3vs Bryant35-14W-14.5W50.5U
4@ Ohio State7-59L+48.5L66.5U
5vs Ohio17-34L+9.5L55.5U
6@ Bowling Green35-20W+14.0W46O
7@ Miami (OH)21-34L+19.5W50.5O
8vs Buffalo10-45L+11.0L57U
10vs Ball State25-31L+24.5W62O
11@ Western Michigan40-45L----
12vs Kent State0-38L+13.0L74.75U
13@ Toledo14-49L+28.5L57.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS4-7
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off22thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off95thPass Def15thRush Def5thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def5th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05432th+0.1533th
Red Zone-0.3388th+0.2048th
Third Down+0.38595th+0.3845th
No Garbage Time-0.06527th+0.1754th
First Half-0.1768th+0.2172th
Second Half+0.05876th+0.07717th
Early Downs-0.1398th+0.1285th
Passing Downs-0.02143th+0.12615th
Standard Downs-0.07422th+0.1635th
Goal to Go-0.5381th+0.16624th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.0%Rush 55.0%
Havoc/Game
7.3
Havoc Rate
10.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
339.4
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
20.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Akron vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAkronOpponents
Scoring
Points238474
Points / Game19.839.5
First Downs
Total225286
Rushing87158
Passing124113
Penalty1415
Rushing
Attempts432482
Yards1,4632,987
Yards / Carry3.46.2
Yards / Game121.9248.9
Touchdowns832
Passing
Attempts353301
Completions226201
Completion %64.0%66.8%
Yards2,6102,622
Yards / Attempt7.48.7
Touchdowns2126
Interceptions56
Passer Rating142.93164.47
Total Offense
Plays785783
Yards4,0735,609
Yards / Play5.27.2
Yards / Game339.4467.4
Punt Returns
Returns925
Yards50217
Average5.68.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3822
Yards653452
Average17.220.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5037
Yards2,1091,472
Average42.239.8
Interception Returns
Returns65
Yards7977
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles259
Lost125
Penalties
Penalties6878
Yards553651
Yards / Game46.154.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0828:52
Third Downs
Attempts162142
Conversions6277
Conversion %38.3%54.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3210
Conversions147
Conversion %43.8%70.0%
Red Zone
Trips3651
Scores (TD + FG)2548
Score %69.4%94.1%
Touchdowns1836
TD %50.0%70.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1116
Made713
Pct63.6%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3061
Made2959
Pct96.7%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →