Fourth Down Data
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UConn

HuskiesBalanced
FBS Independents3-9#115 (-15.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
42· CPer play
19· DConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
7· FPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.091
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.035
Defensive EPA/play
+0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.155
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UConn ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon State2018OA +0.081 / -0.222similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense4422Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, run defense3943East Carolina2017OA +0.049 / -0.255similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3814Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3795Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense373

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Holy Cross27-20W-22.5L--
3@ Virginia18-38L+10.5L50O
4vs East Carolina38-41L-5.0L63O
5@ SMU28-49L+16.5L74O
6vs Memphis31-70L+16.0L76O
7@ Temple28-24W+10.5W56.5U
8vs Tulsa20-14W+4.0W77U
9vs Missouri12-52L+13.5L75U
10vs South Florida20-37L+23.0W64U
11@ UCF24-49L+39.0W63O
12vs Boston College16-39L+21.0L51O
13@ Cincinnati21-22L+6.5W58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off59thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off46thPass Def12thRush Def15thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def5th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00859th+0.1175th
Red Zone-0.2178th+0.20411th
Third Down-0.02546th+0.3745th
No Garbage Time-0.03743th+0.1267th
First Half-0.09223th+0.12912th
Second Half+0.10586th+0.1049th
Early Downs-0.00862th+0.07314th
Passing Downs+0.05465th+0.17812th
Standard Downs-0.01559th+0.08615th
Goal to Go-0.03846th+0.4005th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.4%Rush 53.6%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
415.2
Pts/Drive
1.55
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
21.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — UConn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUConnOpponents
Scoring
Points283455
Points / Game23.637.9
First Downs
Total256308
Rushing95114
Passing130173
Penalty3121
Rushing
Attempts486447
Yards1,7522,221
Yards / Carry3.65.0
Yards / Game146.0185.1
Touchdowns1726
Passing
Attempts421473
Completions256318
Completion %60.8%67.2%
Yards3,2304,007
Yards / Attempt7.78.5
Touchdowns1834
Interceptions116
Passer Rating134.14159.57
Total Offense
Plays907920
Yards4,9826,228
Yards / Play5.56.8
Yards / Game415.2519.0
Punt Returns
Returns1017
Yards6764
Average6.73.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5022
Yards1,054509
Average21.123.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6453
Yards2,4422,326
Average38.243.9
Interception Returns
Returns611
Yards40176
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2114
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties63108
Yards586974
Yards / Game48.881.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3430:26
Third Downs
Attempts191179
Conversions7685
Conversion %39.8%47.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2723
Conversions1110
Conversion %40.7%43.5%
Red Zone
Trips4253
Scores (TD + FG)3146
Score %73.8%86.8%
Touchdowns2239
TD %52.4%73.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1814
Made1210
Pct66.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2960
Made2757
Pct93.1%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts71
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →