Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference3-9#125 (-19.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
52· CRating
57· CPer play
62· CConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.255
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
+0.257
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
53.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.253
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#125
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
70th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
52th
Defensive havoc
2th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2025OA +0.003 / -0.121similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4582UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3813UAB2025OA -0.033 / -0.164similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3774Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3715Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: offensive success rate, run defense, defensive EPA367

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs James Madison14-34L+2.5L--
2@ West Virginia20-56L+25.0L68O
3vs Virginia Tech17-64L+27.0L60O
4@ UConn41-38W+5.0W63O
5vs South Florida31-61L+22.5L72.5O
6vs Temple10-34L+3.5L58.5U
7@ UCF21-63L+35.0L70O
8vs BYU33-17W+5.0W54U
10@ Houston27-52L+23.0L62O
11vs Tulane24-31L+7.0P64U
12vs Cincinnati48-20W+4.5W66.5O
13@ Memphis13-70L+29.5L81.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
8-3
72.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
WLPWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off48thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off62thPass Def1thRush Def2thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01663th+0.2272th
Red Zone-0.05936th+0.21510th
Third Down+0.06462th+0.3813th
No Garbage Time-0.00556th+0.2841th
First Half+0.00661th+0.3091th
Second Half+0.02668th+0.1366th
Early Downs-0.03850th+0.1403th
Passing Downs+0.11077th+0.4081th
Standard Downs-0.03848th+0.1602th
Goal to Go+0.35289th+0.23713th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.8%Rush 42.2%
Havoc/Game
7.8
Havoc Rate
11.0%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
425.6
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
16.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points299540
Points / Game24.945.0
First Downs
Total279296
Rushing72140
Passing172136
Penalty3520
Rushing
Attempts396501
Yards1,2922,946
Yards / Carry3.35.9
Yards / Game107.7245.5
Touchdowns1036
Passing
Attempts543341
Completions307227
Completion %56.5%66.6%
Yards3,8153,554
Yards / Attempt7.010.4
Touchdowns2631
Interceptions167
Passer Rating125.46180.01
Total Offense
Plays939842
Yards5,1076,500
Yards / Play5.47.7
Yards / Game425.6541.7
Punt Returns
Returns617
Yards-4204
Average-0.712.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4420
Yards878533
Average20.026.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5341
Yards2,3121,790
Average43.643.7
Interception Returns
Returns716
Yards72236
Touchdowns04
Fumbles
Fumbles1210
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties8093
Yards705931
Yards / Game58.877.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1128:49
Third Downs
Attempts199150
Conversions8278
Conversion %41.2%52.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2913
Conversions178
Conversion %58.6%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips4456
Scores (TD + FG)3351
Score %75.0%91.1%
Touchdowns2442
TD %54.5%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2517
Made1611
Pct64.0%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3672
Made3569
Pct97.2%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →