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Florida Atlantic
OwlsPass-HeavyAmerican Conference4-8#115 (-12.01)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
15· DOverall
Offense
46· CRating
65· CPer play
39· DConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
5· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.121
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.037
Defensive EPA/play
+0.124
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.0%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.031
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.50
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#107
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense55th
Opp-adjusted defense10th
Offensive EPA/play65th
Defensive EPA/play5th
Offensive success rate29th
Explosiveness70th
Defensive havoc19th
Points per drive69th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1East Carolina2017OA +0.049 / -0.255similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4592Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3703Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3664Charlotte2021OA +0.009 / -0.235similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate3645UAB2025OA -0.033 / -0.164similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA354
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Maryland | 7-39 | L | +14.5 | L | 61 | U |
| 2 | vs Florida A&M | 56-14 | W | -21.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Florida International | 28-38 | L | +2.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Memphis | 26-55 | L | +14.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Rice | 27-21 | W | +4.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 7 | vs UAB | 53-33 | W | -5.0 | W | 66 | O |
| 8 | @ South Florida | 13-48 | L | +20.5 | L | 73 | U |
| 9 | @ Navy | 32-42 | L | +13.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Tulsa | 40-21 | W | -24.5 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Tulane | 24-35 | L | +18.5 | W | 64.25 | U |
| 13 | vs UConn | 45-48 | L | +10.5 | W | 74.5 | O |
| 14 | vs East Carolina | 3-42 | L | +7.0 | L | 66.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.004 | 49th | +0.135 | 4th |
| Red Zone | -0.225 | 9th | +0.132 | 25th |
| Third Down | +0.167 | 65th | +0.447 | 2th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.026 | 60th | +0.132 | 4th |
| First Half | +0.042 | 64th | +0.073 | 19th |
| Second Half | -0.045 | 34th | +0.211 | 1th |
| Early Downs | -0.165 | 4th | +0.080 | 10th |
| Passing Downs | +0.031 | 60th | +0.120 | 15th |
| Standard Downs | -0.024 | 38th | +0.143 | 1th |
| Goal to Go | -0.196 | 19th | -0.152 | 71th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 62.0%Rush 38.0%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.4%
TO Margin
-1.8
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
444.7
Pts/Drive
2.50
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
12.0%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 354 | 436 |
| Points / Game | 29.5 | 36.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 296 | 275 |
| Rushing | 87 | 128 |
| Passing | 181 | 123 |
| Penalty | 28 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 356 | 508 |
| Yards | 1,254 | 2,416 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 104.5 | 201.3 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 35 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 582 | 370 |
| Completions | 385 | 238 |
| Completion % | 66.2% | 64.3% |
| Yards | 4,082 | 2,822 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 20 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 134.07 | 144.61 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 938 | 878 |
| Yards | 5,336 | 5,238 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 444.7 | 436.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 9 |
| Yards | 283 | 110 |
| Average | 18.9 | 12.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 16 |
| Yards | 686 | 301 |
| Average | 22.9 | 18.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 28 | 47 |
| Yards | 1,261 | 2,046 |
| Average | 45.0 | 43.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 20 |
| Yards | 28 | 172 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 13 |
| Lost | 9 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 91 |
| Yards | 672 | 815 |
| Yards / Game | 56.0 | 67.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:44 | 32:17 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 185 |
| Conversions | 71 | 84 |
| Conversion % | 37.2% | 45.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 31 |
| Conversions | 41 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 66.1% | 58.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 44 |
| Score % | 72.5% | 88.0% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 35 |
| TD % | 49.0% | 70.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 17 |
| Made | 16 | 14 |
| Pct | 84.2% | 82.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 50 |
| Made | 36 | 50 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 6 |
| Made | 3 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.