Fourth Down Data
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CLT

Charlotte

49ersBalanced
American Conference5-7#110 (-5.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
52· CRating
68· CPer play
59· CConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
5· FRating
3· FPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.235
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
+0.211
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.158
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.97
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.98
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#94
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
recruiting 47 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
3th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2024OA +0.019 / -0.037similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4032UAB2023OA +0.012 / -0.113similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate3903Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3744Florida Atlantic2025OA +0.003 / -0.121similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate3645Ball State2024OA -0.000 / -0.067similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate362

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Duke31-28W----
2vs Gardner-Webb38-10W-23.5W58U
3@ Georgia State9-20L-3.0P55.75O
4vs Middle Tennessee42-39W----
5@ Illinois14-24L+11.0W53.5U
6@ Florida International45-33W----
8vs Florida Atlantic9-38L----
9@ Western Kentucky13-45L+17.5L73U
10vs Rice31-24W-6.0W53.5O
11@ Louisiana Tech32-42L+6.5L57O
12vs Marshall28-49L+14.5L62O
13@ Old Dominion34-56L+9.5L56O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off54thRed Zone Off41th3rd Down Off67thPass Def4thRush Def3thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03759th+0.1902th
Red Zone-0.07141th+0.05829th
Third Down+0.15567th+0.4724th
No Garbage Time+0.05068th+0.1972th
First Half+0.05165th+0.11615th
Second Half+0.02360th+0.2691th
Early Downs-0.05032th+0.1256th
Passing Downs+0.08178th+0.2374th
Standard Downs+0.01354th+0.1663th
Goal to Go-0.10439th-0.04956th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.9%Rush 52.1%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
15.0%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
403.5
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
11.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCharlotteOpponents
Scoring
Points326408
Points / Game27.234.0
First Downs
Total265267
Rushing98120
Passing138132
Penalty2915
Rushing
Attempts428458
Yards1,7982,446
Yards / Carry4.25.3
Yards / Game149.8203.8
Touchdowns1327
Passing
Attempts394324
Completions247209
Completion %62.7%64.5%
Yards3,0443,130
Yards / Attempt7.79.7
Touchdowns2727
Interceptions108
Passer Rating145.13168.22
Total Offense
Plays822782
Yards4,8425,576
Yards / Play5.97.1
Yards / Game403.5464.7
Punt Returns
Returns77
Yards4622
Average6.63.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4012
Yards860234
Average21.519.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4034
Yards1,6881,354
Average42.239.8
Interception Returns
Returns810
Yards44184
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost106
Penalties
Penalties7790
Yards636788
Yards / Game53.065.7
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1427:46
Third Downs
Attempts164141
Conversions6662
Conversion %40.2%44.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3524
Conversions2215
Conversion %62.9%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips4946
Scores (TD + FG)3836
Score %77.6%78.3%
Touchdowns3030
TD %61.2%65.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1514
Made108
Pct66.7%57.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4154
Made4052
Pct97.6%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →