Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-6#96 (-3.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
57· CRating
77· BPer play
41· CConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
11· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.066
Defensive EPA/play
+0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.030
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.64
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
88th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
58th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Charlotte2021OA +0.009 / -0.235similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate4032Baylor2025OA +0.076 / -0.087similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3473Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3424Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3395East Carolina2017OA +0.049 / -0.255similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, havoc rate333

2024 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Tennessee State38-10W-34.5L55.5U
2@ Clemson20-66L+17.0L51.5O
3@ East Carolina21-19W-7.0L62.5U
4vs South Alabama14-48L----
6@ Marshall37-52L+3.0L58O
7@ Louisiana24-34L+10.5W64.75U
9vs Georgia State33-26W-8.0L62.75U
10vs Old Dominion28-20W0.0L62.5U
11@ Coastal Carolina24-38L----
13vs James Madison34-20W+7.0W60.5U
14@ Georgia Southern20-29L+2.5L62.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
2-9
18.2%
Straight Up
5-6
45.5%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off21thRed Zone Off10th3rd Down Off97thPass Def11thRush Def22thRed Zone Def42th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07278th+0.09212th
Red Zone-0.23310th+0.04142th
Third Down+0.39897th+0.20723th
No Garbage Time+0.03763th+0.11610th
First Half+0.08177th+0.1963th
Second Half+0.06268th-0.01655th
Early Downs-0.1159th+0.01034th
Passing Downs+0.30299th+0.16811th
Standard Downs-0.06221th+0.05922th
Goal to Go+0.01350th+0.11929th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.3%Rush 49.7%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
426.8
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
43.1%
3&Out%
13.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 11 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points293362
Points / Game26.632.9
First Downs
Total262236
Rushing104118
Passing13496
Penalty2422
Rushing
Attempts387411
Yards1,6922,174
Yards / Carry4.45.3
Yards / Game153.8197.6
Touchdowns1324
Passing
Attempts392282
Completions218194
Completion %55.6%68.8%
Yards3,0032,363
Yards / Attempt7.78.4
Touchdowns2320
Interceptions164
Passer Rating131.16159.75
Total Offense
Plays779693
Yards4,6954,537
Yards / Play6.06.5
Yards / Game426.8412.5
Punt Returns
Returns620
Yards69170
Average11.58.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2527
Yards500496
Average20.018.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4036
Yards1,6201,509
Average40.541.9
Interception Returns
Returns416
Yards21213
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1016
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties6677
Yards626702
Yards / Game56.963.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0729:45
Third Downs
Attempts144125
Conversions6257
Conversion %43.1%45.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2215
Conversions136
Conversion %59.1%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4639
Scores (TD + FG)3336
Score %71.7%92.3%
Touchdowns2526
TD %54.3%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1416
Made1114
Pct78.6%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3244
Made3242
Pct100.0%95.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →