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Baylor
BearsBalancedBig 12 Conference5-7#47 (+4.53)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
65· COverall
Offense
85· BRating
59· CPer play
69· CConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
10· FPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.087
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
+0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#63
model 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#45
recruiting 2 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense79th
Opp-adjusted defense19th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate66th
Explosiveness66th
Defensive havoc5th
Points per drive74th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia Southern2022OA +0.096 / -0.166similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3872North Texas2024OA +0.029 / -0.031similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3483App State2024OA +0.019 / -0.037similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3474South Carolina2018OA +0.092 / -0.024similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3405UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA340
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Auburn | 24-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ SMU | 48-45 | W | +2.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Samford | 42-7 | W | -47.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Arizona State | 24-27 | L | -2.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Oklahoma State | 45-27 | W | -21.5 | L | 80.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Kansas State | 35-34 | W | -5.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 8 | @ TCU | 36-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Cincinnati | 20-41 | L | +18.0 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 10 | vs UCF | 30-3 | W | -3.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Utah | 28-55 | L | +9.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Arizona | 17-41 | L | +6.5 | L | 62 | U |
| 14 | vs Houston | 24-31 | L | -2.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.006 | 52th | +0.090 | 12th |
| Red Zone | -0.105 | 27th | +0.069 | 33th |
| Third Down | +0.101 | 55th | +0.117 | 39th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.034 | 64th | +0.117 | 9th |
| First Half | +0.056 | 70th | +0.141 | 8th |
| Second Half | -0.048 | 33th | +0.032 | 35th |
| Early Downs | -0.031 | 39th | +0.104 | 3th |
| Passing Downs | +0.077 | 73th | -0.006 | 46th |
| Standard Downs | -0.028 | 36th | +0.137 | 2th |
| Goal to Go | +0.223 | 79th | +0.084 | 39th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 55.5%Rush 44.5%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
13.0%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
451.1
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
37.6%
3&Out%
8.4%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Baylor | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 373 | 391 |
| Points / Game | 31.1 | 32.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 297 | 267 |
| Rushing | 109 | 127 |
| Passing | 158 | 109 |
| Penalty | 30 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 410 | 482 |
| Yards | 1,698 | 2,366 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 141.5 | 197.2 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 30 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 511 | 344 |
| Completions | 309 | 214 |
| Completion % | 60.5% | 62.2% |
| Yards | 3,715 | 2,339 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 136.86 | 130.40 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 921 | 826 |
| Yards | 5,413 | 4,705 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 451.1 | 392.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 12 |
| Yards | 141 | 32 |
| Average | 7.8 | 2.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 25 |
| Yards | 767 | 512 |
| Average | 22.6 | 20.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 27 | 50 |
| Yards | 1,267 | 2,009 |
| Average | 46.9 | 40.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 12 |
| Yards | 108 | 176 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 8 |
| Lost | 12 | 2 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 75 |
| Yards | 732 | 771 |
| Yards / Game | 61.0 | 64.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:15 | 30:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 157 |
| Conversions | 65 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 37.6% | 41.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 19 |
| Conversions | 26 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 53.1% | 63.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 37 |
| Score % | 80.8% | 84.1% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 30 |
| TD % | 59.6% | 68.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 20 |
| Made | 18 | 14 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 49 |
| Made | 37 | 47 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 1 |
| Made | 6 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.