Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference5-7#101 (-4.35)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
76· BRating
79· BPer play
85· BConsistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
3· FRating
2· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.125
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.168
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.094
Defensive EPA/play
+0.201
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
54.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.80
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#109
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#50
recruiting 51 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4312Washington State2019OA +0.109 / -0.128similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense4183TCU2021OA +0.075 / -0.167similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4094North Texas2017OA -0.005 / -0.142similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3755Charlotte2021OA +0.009 / -0.235similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate374

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ San Diego State38-20W+6.0W46.5O
2vs Mississippi State17-39L+10.5L57.5U
3vs North Dakota State31-28W+3.0W49.25O
4@ California31-49L+3.0L50O
5vs Colorado43-20W-17.5W57O
6vs Oregon22-49L+13.5L70.5O
7@ Washington39-49L+14.0W73O
9vs USC37-45L+15.5W76.5O
10@ Utah20-45L+17.5L67U
11@ UCLA34-28W+19.5W77.5U
12vs Washington State20-31L-4.0L65O
13vs Arizona State38-35W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off85thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off69thPass Def3thRush Def4thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09284th+0.1852th
Red Zone-0.10629th+0.2904th
Third Down+0.17469th+0.22220th
No Garbage Time+0.09180th+0.1962th
First Half+0.12986th+0.2321th
Second Half+0.05271th+0.1364th
Early Downs+0.11592th+0.1174th
Passing Downs+0.09371th+0.3183th
Standard Downs+0.09185th+0.1354th
Goal to Go-0.12633th+0.25811th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.6%Rush 43.4%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
18.4
Yards/Game
462.4
Pts/Drive
2.67
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
15.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points370438
Points / Game30.836.5
First Downs
Total290307
Rushing97140
Passing170137
Penalty2330
Rushing
Attempts352449
Yards1,7282,509
Yards / Carry4.95.6
Yards / Game144.0209.1
Touchdowns1933
Passing
Attempts459402
Completions283280
Completion %61.7%69.7%
Yards3,8213,103
Yards / Attempt8.37.7
Touchdowns2625
Interceptions134
Passer Rating144.61153.02
Total Offense
Plays811851
Yards5,5495,612
Yards / Play6.86.6
Yards / Game462.4467.7
Punt Returns
Returns1318
Yards93141
Average7.27.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2021
Yards354427
Average17.720.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3734
Yards1,6291,460
Average44.042.9
Interception Returns
Returns413
Yards59183
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1517
Lost812
Penalties
Penalties6561
Yards600589
Yards / Game50.049.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0431:57
Third Downs
Attempts147134
Conversions6264
Conversion %42.2%47.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions1012
Conversion %43.5%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips5457
Scores (TD + FG)4450
Score %81.5%87.7%
Touchdowns3245
TD %59.3%78.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2112
Made187
Pct85.7%58.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3860
Made3857
Pct100.0%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts70
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →