Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference5-7#87 (-2.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
57· CRating
80· BPer play
83· BConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
4· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.167
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.077
Defensive EPA/play
+0.187
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
53.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.41
own return game
Return Defense
+0.72
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#28
recruiting 59 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
88th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
61th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4092Coastal Carolina2018OA +0.096 / -0.172similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3833Rutgers2025OA +0.072 / -0.178similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3584Ole Miss2018OA +0.154 / -0.106similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense3515North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: defensive success rate, run defense, defensive EPA349

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Duquesne45-3W----
2vs California34-32W-9.5L49O
4vs SMU34-42L-9.5L65.5O
5vs Texas27-32L+5.0P65U
6@ Texas Tech52-31W-2.0W61O
7@ Oklahoma31-52L+13.5L65.5O
8vs West Virginia17-29L-4.5L57U
9@ Kansas State12-31L+3.5L58.5U
10vs Baylor30-28W+6.5W58.5U
11@ Oklahoma State17-63L+13.0L54.5O
12vs Kansas31-28W+15.0L59O
13@ Iowa State14-48L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-8-1
20.0%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off47thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off87thPass Def22thRush Def1thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def12th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07179th+0.2091th
Red Zone-0.08937th+0.07029th
Third Down+0.29987th+0.28612th
No Garbage Time+0.07179th+0.1963th
First Half+0.10482th+0.2092th
Second Half+0.03664th+0.2102th
Early Downs+0.08687th+0.2300th
Passing Downs+0.21594th+0.09822th
Standard Downs-0.00447th+0.2561th
Goal to Go-0.33111th+0.14928th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.6%Rush 60.4%
Havoc/Game
8.5
Havoc Rate
12.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
435.8
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
46.9%
3&Out%
11.7%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points344419
Points / Game28.734.9
First Downs
Total252262
Rushing115124
Passing118117
Penalty1921
Rushing
Attempts473460
Yards2,3552,664
Yards / Carry5.05.8
Yards / Game196.3222.0
Touchdowns2134
Passing
Attempts310308
Completions200198
Completion %64.5%64.3%
Yards2,8752,877
Yards / Attempt9.39.3
Touchdowns1920
Interceptions610
Passer Rating158.77157.68
Total Offense
Plays783768
Yards5,2305,541
Yards / Play6.77.2
Yards / Game435.8461.8
Punt Returns
Returns97
Yards9218
Average10.22.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3023
Yards804474
Average26.820.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4437
Yards1,8611,573
Average42.342.5
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards8384
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles206
Lost103
Penalties
Penalties8552
Yards737473
Yards / Game61.439.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2830:32
Third Downs
Attempts162144
Conversions7667
Conversion %46.9%46.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1818
Conversions710
Conversion %38.9%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4651
Scores (TD + FG)3846
Score %82.6%90.2%
Touchdowns2636
TD %56.5%70.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1413
Pct77.8%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4249
Made4248
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts16
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →