Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference5-7#106 (-6.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
54· CRating
89· BPer play
86· BConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
6· FRating
4· FPer play
8· FConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.096
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.172
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.137
Defensive EPA/play
+0.178
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
51.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.174
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
63th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4072TCU2021OA +0.075 / -0.167similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3833North Texas2017OA -0.005 / -0.142similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, passing offense3704Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3665Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate359

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Carolina15-49L+31.0L55.5O
2vs UAB47-24W+8.5W54.5O
3@ Campbell58-21W----
4@ Louisiana30-28W+3.0W61.5U
5@ Troy21-45L+13.5L57.5O
7vs UL Monroe20-45L-6.5L67U
8@ Massachusetts24-13W+2.5W74U
9@ Georgia State37-34W-2.5W61O
10vs App State7-23L+13.5L52U
11vs Arkansas State16-44L+6.5L61.5U
12vs Georgia Southern17-41L+7.5L52.5O
13@ South Alabama28-31L-1.0L58.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off72thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off77thPass Def11thRush Def5thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12689th+0.1526th
Red Zone+0.03253th+0.09731th
Third Down+0.18177th+0.24317th
No Garbage Time+0.14092th+0.1785th
First Half+0.11988th+0.1915th
Second Half+0.13390th+0.10517th
Early Downs+0.00357th+0.1722th
Passing Downs+0.27697th+0.17511th
Standard Downs+0.05472th+0.1425th
Goal to Go+0.14364th+0.01564th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.0%Rush 66.0%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
379.3
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points320398
Points / Game26.733.2
First Downs
Total248259
Rushing127136
Passing96107
Penalty2516
Rushing
Attempts515451
Yards2,3842,933
Yards / Carry4.66.5
Yards / Game198.7244.4
Touchdowns2132
Passing
Attempts265290
Completions164178
Completion %61.9%61.4%
Yards2,1682,477
Yards / Attempt8.28.5
Touchdowns1920
Interceptions74
Passer Rating148.99153.13
Total Offense
Plays780741
Yards4,5525,410
Yards / Play5.87.3
Yards / Game379.3450.8
Punt Returns
Returns911
Yards4997
Average5.48.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3143
Yards5651,047
Average18.224.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4937
Yards2,1041,483
Average42.940.1
Interception Returns
Returns47
Yards57103
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2716
Lost118
Penalties
Penalties5288
Yards493822
Yards / Game41.168.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4827:10
Third Downs
Attempts147134
Conversions6261
Conversion %42.2%45.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1617
Conversions118
Conversion %68.8%47.1%
Red Zone
Trips3846
Scores (TD + FG)3439
Score %89.5%84.8%
Touchdowns2332
TD %60.5%69.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1616
Made139
Pct81.3%56.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3852
Made3551
Pct92.1%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →