Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference9-5#112 (-14.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
26· DRating
76· BPer play
90· A-Consistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
10· FRating
13· FPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.142
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.101
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.163
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 37 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
14th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense4092Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, passing offense4023Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3964West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, run defense3945SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA389

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lamar59-14W+4.5L62O
2@ SMU32-54L+13.5L64.5O
3@ Iowa14-31L+19.5W52U
4vs UAB46-43W-10.0L59O
5@ Southern Miss43-28W+7.5W56.5O
7vs UTSA29-26W+2.5W59U
8@ Florida Atlantic31-69L+3.5L67.5O
9vs Old Dominion45-38W-11.0L59O
10@ Louisiana Tech24-23W+3.5W67U
11vs UTEP45-10W-23.5W54.5O
12vs Army52-49W-2.0W59.5O
13@ Rice30-14W-12.5W63U
14@ Florida Atlantic17-41L+11.0L71U
16vs Troy30-50L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off79thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off80thPass Def17thRush Def21thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10189th+0.08117th
Red Zone+0.18485th+0.18014th
Third Down+0.15580th+0.3346th
No Garbage Time+0.04673th+0.09915th
First Half+0.06677th+0.08326th
Second Half+0.14193th+0.07914th
Early Downs+0.04576th+0.01729th
Passing Downs+0.17987th+0.13717th
Standard Downs+0.06579th+0.05221th
Goal to Go+0.11271th+0.17619th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.1%Rush 49.9%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.2%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
455.1
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points497490
Points / Game35.535.0
First Downs
Total341289
Rushing131138
Passing184128
Penalty2623
Rushing
Attempts517590
Yards2,2852,835
Yards / Carry4.44.8
Yards / Game163.2202.5
Touchdowns2835
Passing
Attempts520423
Completions328233
Completion %63.1%55.1%
Yards4,0863,205
Yards / Attempt7.97.6
Touchdowns3224
Interceptions158
Passer Rating143.62133.67
Total Offense
Plays1,0371,013
Yards6,3716,040
Yards / Play6.16.0
Yards / Game455.1431.4
Punt Returns
Returns199
Yards19827
Average10.43.0
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns4653
Yards8761,223
Average19.023.1
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5265
Yards2,0612,512
Average39.638.6
Interception Returns
Returns815
Yards16154
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2313
Lost128
Penalties
Penalties6981
Yards613724
Yards / Game43.851.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1629:44
Third Downs
Attempts194212
Conversions8493
Conversion %43.3%43.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3234
Conversions1819
Conversion %56.3%55.9%
Red Zone
Trips5454
Scores (TD + FG)4849
Score %88.9%90.7%
Touchdowns3839
TD %70.4%72.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2218
Made2015
Pct90.9%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5858
Made5557
Pct94.8%98.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts55
Made24
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →