Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-7#97 (-3.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
76· BRating
94· APer play
92· A-Consistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
15· DRating
10· FPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.154
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.106
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.157
Defensive EPA/play
+0.130
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.220
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.88
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.92
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 75 spots higher
27 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3802TCU2021OA +0.075 / -0.167similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense3513Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3514Georgia Tech2025OA +0.124 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, pass defense3405North Carolina2023OA +0.046 / -0.032similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate329

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas Tech47-27W-2.5W71.5O
2vs Southern Illinois76-41W-28.0W65.5O
3vs Alabama7-62L+22.5L71.5U
4vs Kent State38-17W-28.5L75U
5@ LSU16-45L+10.5L61P
6vs UL Monroe70-21W-23.5W76O
7@ Arkansas37-33W-6.5L66.5O
8vs Auburn16-31L+5.0L64U
10vs South Carolina44-48L-2.0L70O
11@ Texas A&M24-38L+13.0L68U
12@ Vanderbilt29-36L+3.0L72.5U
13vs Mississippi State3-35L+12.5L61U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS0-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off98thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off28thPass Def42thRush Def7thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13693th+0.10814th
Red Zone-0.11919th-0.19789th
Third Down-0.04428th+0.3816th
No Garbage Time+0.15696th+0.1369th
First Half+0.15596th+0.2362th
Second Half+0.11487th-0.03162th
Early Downs+0.17798th+0.08613th
Passing Downs+0.07370th+0.05142th
Standard Downs+0.16298th+0.1367th
Goal to Go-0.02135th-0.18380th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.3%Rush 48.7%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
510.5
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
14.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points407434
Points / Game33.936.2
First Downs
Total289304
Rushing105144
Passing163130
Penalty2130
Rushing
Attempts419523
Yards1,9692,661
Yards / Carry4.75.1
Yards / Game164.1221.8
Touchdowns2425
Passing
Attempts441395
Completions282250
Completion %63.9%63.3%
Yards4,1573,140
Yards / Attempt9.47.9
Touchdowns2126
Interceptions97
Passer Rating154.76148.24
Total Offense
Plays860918
Yards6,1265,801
Yards / Play7.16.3
Yards / Game510.5483.4
Punt Returns
Returns1110
Yards36150
Average3.315.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2141
Yards4381,012
Average20.924.7
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4944
Yards1,9801,807
Average40.441.1
Interception Returns
Returns79
Yards116119
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost58
Penalties
Penalties8874
Yards802671
Yards / Game66.855.9
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5833:02
Third Downs
Attempts156168
Conversions5568
Conversion %35.3%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1623
Conversions812
Conversion %50.0%52.2%
Red Zone
Trips5463
Scores (TD + FG)4853
Score %88.9%84.1%
Touchdowns2737
TD %50.0%58.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2723
Made2218
Pct81.5%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4854
Made4754
Pct97.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →