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ORST
Oregon State
BeaversBalancedPac-12 Conference2-10#121 (-9.58)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
9· FOverall
Offense
44· CRating
59· CPer play
48· CConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.081
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.222
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.027
Defensive EPA/play
+0.263
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
55.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.236
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.94
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#121
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 65 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense80th
Opp-adjusted defense1th
Offensive EPA/play60th
Defensive EPA/play1th
Offensive success rate48th
Explosiveness89th
Defensive havoc4th
Points per drive31th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense4432Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3633East Carolina2017OA +0.049 / -0.255similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3594Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3475Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA347
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Ohio State | 31-77 | L | +40.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 2 | vs Southern Utah | 48-25 | W | -11.0 | W | 70 | O |
| 3 | @ Nevada | 35-37 | L | +4.0 | W | 67 | O |
| 4 | vs Arizona | 14-35 | L | +4.0 | L | 72.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Arizona State | 24-52 | L | +21.5 | L | 64 | O |
| 6 | vs Washington State | 37-56 | L | +17.0 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 8 | vs California | 7-49 | L | +8.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 9 | @ Colorado | 41-34 | W | +26.5 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | vs USC | 21-38 | L | +15.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Stanford | 17-48 | L | +23.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Washington | 23-42 | L | +32.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Oregon | 15-55 | L | +18.0 | L | 71 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.044 | 66th | +0.251 | 1th |
| Red Zone | -0.030 | 38th | +0.210 | 13th |
| Third Down | -0.082 | 23th | +0.406 | 4th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.034 | 63th | +0.259 | 1th |
| First Half | +0.077 | 73th | +0.290 | 1th |
| Second Half | +0.008 | 49th | +0.207 | 3th |
| Early Downs | +0.072 | 81th | +0.195 | 1th |
| Passing Downs | -0.091 | 20th | +0.246 | 3th |
| Standard Downs | +0.131 | 95th | +0.252 | 1th |
| Goal to Go | +0.335 | 86th | +0.384 | 8th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
12.1%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
404.8
Pts/Drive
1.94
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
19.2%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oregon State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 313 | 548 |
| Points / Game | 26.1 | 45.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 306 |
| Rushing | 106 | 155 |
| Passing | 138 | 133 |
| Penalty | 19 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 485 | 499 |
| Yards | 1,867 | 3,382 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 6.8 |
| Yards / Game | 155.6 | 281.8 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 37 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 430 | 369 |
| Completions | 259 | 235 |
| Completion % | 60.2% | 63.7% |
| Yards | 2,990 | 3,059 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 33 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 127.50 | 161.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 915 | 868 |
| Yards | 4,857 | 6,441 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 7.4 |
| Yards / Game | 404.8 | 536.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 20 |
| Yards | 80 | 117 |
| Average | 8.0 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 41 | 18 |
| Yards | 807 | 378 |
| Average | 19.7 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 42 |
| Yards | 2,533 | 1,690 |
| Average | 40.2 | 40.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 9 |
| Yards | 126 | 134 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 17 |
| Lost | 9 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 67 |
| Yards | 602 | 623 |
| Yards / Game | 50.2 | 51.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:11 | 29:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 195 | 156 |
| Conversions | 71 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 36.4% | 50.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 22 |
| Conversions | 25 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 69.4% | 63.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 46 |
| Score % | 80.9% | 88.5% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 40 |
| TD % | 61.7% | 76.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 12 |
| Made | 12 | 7 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 58.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 74 |
| Made | 35 | 71 |
| Pct | 92.1% | 95.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.